产业结构升级对市域经济韧性的空间效应

The Spatial Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Urban Economic Resilience

产业结构升级对于推进城市经济韧性增长具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章基于中国269个地级及以上城市2009-2019年面板数据,实证分析了产业结构升级对经济韧性的空间效应,研究表明:①研究期内,产业结构升级指数有所提升,而经济韧性水平存在显著下降,其在空间上均表现出明显的分异特征,水平较高的市域之间互相聚集,水平较低的市域之间互相聚集,并且这种集聚趋势随着时间的推移越来越明显。②经济韧性具有正向空间溢出效应,本地区经济韧性的发展能对其邻近地区经济韧性的发展起到促进作用。③产业结构升级能够显著提升本地区经济韧性水平,但通过溢出效应对邻近地区经济韧性会产生更大的负向作用,因此从总体上来看产业结构升级不利于市域经济韧性提升。④固定资产投资对市域经济韧性会产生促进作用,而环境规制、人口密度以及外商直接投资对市域经济韧性具有负向影响。

The upgrading of industrial structure has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting urban economic resilience growth.Based on the panel data of 269 cities in China from 2009 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the spatial effect of industrial structure upgrading on economic resilience.The research shows that:1)During the research period,the industrial structure upgrading index has improved,but the level of economic resilience has declined significantly,which shows obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.Cities with higher level of economic resilience gather together,and cities with lower level of economic resilience gather together,this clustering trend becomes increasingly evident over time.2)Economic resilience has a positive spatial spillover effect,and the development of local economic resilience can promote the development of economic resilience in its neighboring areas.3)The upgrading of industrial structure can significantly improve the level of economic resilience in the region.It will have a greater negative impact on the economic resilience of neighboring regions through the spillover effect.Therefore,overall,the upgrading of industrial structure is not conducive to the improvement of urban economic resilience.4)Fixed asset investment will promote urban economic resilience,while environmental regulation,population density and foreign direct investment have a negative impact on urban economic resilience.