贺兰山东麓葡萄酒生产集群格局演变与驱动机制

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Wine Production Clusters and Its Driving Mechanism in the East of Helan Mountains

文章以中国最大的葡萄酒生产产区——贺兰山东麓葡萄酒生产集群为研究对象,运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、密度估计、非参数K检验、RDA冗余分析等方法,刻画了研究区1984-2021年葡萄酒生产集群时空演变特征,定量识别了主要驱动因子,阐释了关键驱动机制。结果表明:①贺兰山东麓葡萄酒产业过去37年发展可分为4个阶段:1984-1995年(Ⅰ)萌发停滞、1995—2005年(Ⅱ)缓慢发展、2005-2011年(Ⅲ)快速发展、2011-2021年(Ⅳ)高速发展。②在空间上,第Ⅰ~Ⅳ阶段,呈单核-多核-多核发育-多核网络的空间演变格局,且在重心位置上具有整体向东南偏移的特征。③贺兰山东麓葡萄酒生产集群时空演变主要驱动因子为降水(50.7%)、土壤有机质(13.6%)、气温(10.4%)、粉粒(7.9%)、全钾(6.1%)、砾石含量(4.8%)、砂粒(2.7%)等,且p值≤0.05。④分时段分析发现第Ⅰ阶段主要受气温和全钾驱动,第Ⅱ阶段为粉粒、砂粒和全钾驱动,第Ⅲ阶段为降水、气温、粉粒与全钾驱动,第Ⅳ阶段为降水、有机质、砂粒、砾石含量和全钾主控。⑤在机制上显性与隐性两个驱动力共同作用贺兰山东麓葡萄酒生产集群时空变化。

Taking the wine production clusters in the east of Helan Mountains(the largest wine production region in China)as the research area,this study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of wine production clusters in 1984-2021,identifies its main driving factors and explains its driving mechanism.The results show that:1)The development of the wine industry in the east of Helan Mountains can be divided into four phases from 1984 to 2021:germination and stagnation phase in 1984-1995(I),slow development phase in 1995-2005(Ⅱ),rapid development phase in 2005-2011(Ⅲ),and rapid development phase in 2011-2021(Ⅳ).2)In terms of space,during stage I to stageⅣ,it shows the spatial evolution of single-center-multi-center-the mature stage of multi-center-multi-center network,and the gravity centers shifted to the southeast as a whole.3)Precipitation(50.7%),organic matter(13.6%),air temperature(10.4%),powder(7.9%),total potassium(6.1%),gravel content(4.8%)and sand(2.7)are the main driving factors of the spatio-temporal variation of the wine production clusters in the east of Helan Mountains,and p value is less than or equal to 0.05.4)It is found that it is mainly driven by air temperature and total potassium at the phase of I.It is mainly driven by powder,sand and total potassium at the phase ofⅡ,precipitation,air temperature,powder and total potassium at the phase ofⅢ,and dominated by precipitation,organic matter,sand,gravel content and total potassium at the phase ofⅣ.5)In terms of mechanism,dominant and recessive driving forces work together to drive the temporal and spatial changes of wine production clusters in the east of Helan Mountains.