机动车限行政策对城市私人小汽车保有量的影响及空间分异——基于多期双重差分模型的实证

Effect and spatial differentiation of vehicle restriction policy on urban private car ownership:Empirical evidence based on the multiphase difference-in-differences model

机动车限行政策被视为交通需求管理的即时有效措施,已在世界各地的许多城市广泛实施,但对于该政策的长期有效性一直存在争议。为科学评估限行政策对城市私人小汽车保有量的影响,论文以中国227个地级及以上城市为研究对象,使用2009—2018年面板数据,利用多期双重差分模型,分析了限行政策对城市私人小汽车保有量的影响,并探讨了不同类型限行政策和不同区位城市影响效应的异质性。研究发现:①限行政策的实施短期内刺激了城市私人小汽车保有量的增长。无论是一般限行还是特殊限行政策,都对城市私人小汽车保有量的增加产生显著正效应,但与特殊限行政策相比,一般限行政策的影响更大。②限行政策对城市私人小汽车保有量的影响具有时间动态效应,政策实施后的第一至第三年促使了城市私人小汽车保有量的增长,政策实施第四年后,作用基本消失。③限行政策对城市私人小汽车保有量影响具有区域差异。对于东部地区的城市而言,限行政策促进了私人小汽车保有量的增长,但对中西部地区的城市却并不产生显著影响。研究结论可为城市规划、公共管理和交通需求精细化管理政策的制定提供参考。

Motor vehicle traffic restriction policies are seen as an immediate and effective measure for traffic demand management,and have been widely implemented in many cities around the world.However,there have been controversies over the long-term effectiveness of these policies.In order to scientifically assess the impact of traffic vehicle restriction policies on urban private car ownership,this study used the panel data of 227 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2009 to 2018 to analyze the impact of vehicle traffic restriction policies on urban private car ownership using the propensity score matching multiphase difference-in-differences model,and discussed the heterogeneity of different types of vehicle traffic restriction policies and their impact on cities in different regions.This research found that,first,the implementation of the vehicle traffic restriction policies stimulated the growth of private car ownership in cities in the short term.Both general and special restrictions had a significant positive effect on the increase of private car ownership in cities,but compared to special restrictions,the impact of general restrictions was greater.Second,the impact of the vehicle traffic restriction policies on urban private car ownership was dynamic.In the first 1-3 years after the implementation of the policy,an increase in urban private car ownership was observed,with the second year being the fastest growing year.Starting from the fourth year after the implementation of the policy,the impact of the policy gradually disappeared,and people began to adapt to the impact of vehicle traffic restriction on their lives.Third,there are regional differences in the impact of vehicle traffic restriction policies on urban car ownership.For cities in the eastern region,the restriction policy has promoted the growth of private car ownership,but it has not had a significant impact on cities in the central and western regions.The conclusions of this research can provide a reference for the formulation of urban transportation planning and refined traffic demand management policies.