海南省登陆台风特征演变及其危险性分析

Evolution of landing typhoon characteristics and typhoon hazard in Hainan Province of China

认知登陆台风的特征规律并分析其致灾危险性,对于科学提高台风灾害风险防范能力具有重要现实意义。论文基于中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集和中国台风网资料,对1949―2021年登陆海南省的台风特征进行统计分析,并基于频率、强度和路径三要素开展海南省各市县台风危险性评估。结果表明:73年来海南省年均登陆台风约2.3个,登陆频次总体呈下降趋势;年内台风登陆时间集中在7―10月,其中8月和9月登陆台风数量约占全年的48%。台风登陆点主要集中在海南省东部沿海市县,以文昌市和万宁市居多;台风过境高频次地区主要位于海南省中部沿“东南―西北”呈带状分布。海南省台风危险性等级空间格局与台风过境频次相似,整体上沿海市县台风危险性高于内陆市县,东方市、乐东黎族自治县和琼中黎族苗族自治县处于台风高危险性等级。研究结果可为海南省台风防灾减灾和国民经济发展规划提供参考和依据。

Identifying the characteristics of landing typhoons and analyzing typhoon hazard are of great practical significance for scientifically improving the risk prevention capability of typhoon disasters.Based on the best track data set of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration and the data of the China Typhoon Network,this study conducted a statistical analysis of the characteristics of typhoons that landed in Hainan Province from 1949 to 2021,and carried out a typhoon hazard assessment in cities and counties of the province based on typhoon frequency,intensity,and tracks.The results show that:1)In the past 73 years,the average annual number of typhoons that landed in Hainan Province was about 2.3,and the frequency of landings was gradually declining.In each year,typhoon landing time was concentrated in July to October,and the accumulated landfall between August and September accounted for about 48%of the annual numbers.2)Typhoon landing sites were located in the eastern coastal cities and counties of Hainan Province,mainly in Wenchang and Wanning.High-frequency typhoon transit areas were predominantly in central Hainan Province along the southeast-northwest line with zonal distribution.3)The spatial pattern of typhoon hazard level in Hainan Province was similar to its typhoon transit frequency.Generally,typhoon hazard in coastal cities and counties was higher than inland cities and counties.Dongfang City,Ledong Li Autonomous County,and Qiongzhong Li and Miao Autonomous County were among the highest hazard level regions.The results of this research can provide a reference and basis for typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation and long-term national economic development planning in Hainan Province.