产品动态技术关联与中国出口产业地理共聚

Product dynamic relatedness and the geographical coagglomeration of China′s export industry

伴随着区域产业分工不断深化,不同空间尺度上的产业集聚尤其是不同产业间的共聚现象日益凸显。本文使用2000—2016年中国海关贸易数据库,引入产品动态技术关联构建中国出口产品空间网络,刻画其演化过程及网络结构特征,在此基础上,考察产品技术关联对中国出口产业空间共聚的影响及其变动趋势,并从产品异质性视角补充相关实证证据。描述性分析发现:①中国出口产品空间具有典型的“核心-边缘”结构,2000—2016年期间,中国出口产品空间网络结构由松散扁平向复杂紧密演化。②强关联产品在地理上高度共聚。③中国出口产品空间网络表现出产品间更集聚、联系更紧密、网络结构更复杂的特征,形成了一个密集而复杂的强关联核心。实证检验表明:①产品技术关联对中国出口产业地理共聚存在显著的正向影响,但这一影响的边际效应在研究期内逐渐递减。②同行业与跨行业产品、高/低技术复杂度产品在产品技术关联影响产业共聚中具有差异化作用。其中,同行业产品关联对地理邻近的促进作用要强于跨行业关联;低复杂度产品无论与何种复杂度产品关联均能够显著提升其在地理空间上共聚的概率,高复杂度的关联产品则并未表现出共聚特征。本研究有利于为中国区域产业布局调整和产业结构升级提供理论支撑和政策指引。

With the deepening of regional industrial division,the phenomenon of industrial agglomeration on different spatial scales,especially among different industries,has become obvious.This paper introduces the product dynamic relatedness to construct China's export product space network using Chinese Customs Trade Statistics(CCTS)dataset from 2000 to 2016,and describes the dynamic evolution pattern and network features of China's export product space.On this basis,this paper constructs an econometric model to investigate the influence and changing trend of product relatedness on the geographical coagglomeration of China's export industry.Meanwhile,from the perspective of product heterogeneity,this paper divides all export products into different groups to supplement the relevant empirical evidence.Descriptive analysis found that:(1)China's export product space has a typical"core-edge"structure,and the spatial structure of China's export product space network evolved from loose and flat to complex and compact from 2000 to 2016.(2)Strongly related products are highly geographically copolymerized.(3)China's export product space network shows the characteristics of more agglomeration,closer connection,and more complex network structure among products,forming a dense and complex core of strong correlation.Empirical test shows that:(1)Product relatedness has a significant positive impact on the geographical coagglomeration of China's export industry,but the marginal effect decreases during the study period.(2)Products in the same or different industries and products with high/low technological complexity play differential roles in the impact of product relatedness on industrial coagglomeration.The promotion effect of products in the same industry on geographical proximity is stronger than that of cross-industry products.The relatedness between low-complexity products and any other kind of complexity products can significantly increase the probability of coagglomeration,but high-complexity related products do not show the characteristics of industrial coagglomeration.This paper may have the following policy implications.First,introducing upstream and downstream products or similar products to existing advantageous products in a region makes it more likely to experience knowledge spillovers and share elements,thereby enabling them to survive and gain advantages.Second,while introducing new industries,it is necessary to build a gathering space carrier and knowledge exchange platform for them.Finally,the selection of regional leading industries and the layout of industrial chains should not blindly pursue the quantity of high-tech industries and layout industries that do not match the local industrial structure to meet the needs of high-quality industrial development.