不同高考模式下学生选科的影响因素研究——基于BP神经网络模型的实证分析

Research on the Influencing Factors of Students'Subject Selection under Different College Entrance Examination Modes:Empirical Analysis Based onBPNNModel

文章基于2022年“关于高考改革的调查”获取的33470份对高考有深切体会的大学生样本,按70%、15%、15%的比例随机将样本分为训练组、验证组和测试组,并用训练组构建了一个泛化性能较好、预测精度较高的BP神经网络模型,结果模型通过了验证组和测试组的检验。研究发现:在三种选科模式下,影响学生选科的基本因素具有较强的一致性。其中,首要是个人因素,其次是家庭因素,最后是学校因素和社会因素。在重要性排名中,前三的具体因素都是性别、学生成绩和就业形势;家庭因素与学生选科自由度呈正相关,但作用有限;选科自由度与学校因素的重要性呈负相关;社会因素对学生选科的影响值得进一步关注。基于此,文章从高考改革的前期筹备、实施进程和后续跟进三个维度提出了相应的对策建议。

Based on the"National Survey on the College Entrance Examination Reform"in 2022,the article selects 33470 college students as research samples,who have a deep understanding of the college entrance examination.In this study,samples were randomly divided into training,validation,and testing groups at a ratio of 70%,15%,and 15%.A BPNN(back propagation neural network)model with good generalization performance and high prediction accuracy was constructed using the training group,and the model passed the tests of the validation and testing groups.The results show that there is strong consistency in the basic factors that affect students'subject selection under the three subject selection modes:the main factors affecting students'subject selection are individual factors,the secondary factor is the family factors,the last factor is school and social related.The top three specific factors in importance rankings are gender,student performance,and employment situation;Family factors have a positive correlation with students'freedom to choose subjects,but the influence is limited;the degree of freedom in subject selection is negatively correlated with the importance of school factors;the impact of social factors on students'subject selection deserves further attention.Based on this,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from three dimensions:the preliminary preparation,implementation process,and follow-up of the college entrance examination reform.