基于事故案例的危险品道路运输干扰源分析

Analysis on Disturbance Source in Road Transport of Dangerous Goods Based on Accident Cases

为了研究引起危险品道路运输事故发生和发展的干扰源之间的联系,通过事件链和复杂网络的方法,建立了危险品道路运输事故干扰源网络,发现了影响危险品道路运输事故发生和发展的关键因素。首先,通过媒体报道和互联网网站收集和整理了2005—2021年162起交通事故案例,形成事故案例数据库,按照干扰源之间的因果关系整理事故案例事件链。然后,融合所有事件链,形成危险品道路运输事故干扰源网络。使用Pajek软件绘制了网络图,计算了网络平均路径长度和聚类系数,分析了网络整体拓扑特性。最后,根据节点的度数中心性、介数中心性等个体特征,将网络中的节点分为原因节点、中间节点和边缘节点,分析了3类节点在网络中的地位,并分别给出了控制策略。结果表明:危险品道路运输事故干扰源网络具有较小平均路径长度和较大聚类系数,具有小世界特性,这增加了危险品道路运输事故的处理难度和风险预测及控制难度;原因节点和中间节点中的主、客观因素是管控网络的重点,加强事故前原因节点的控制和事故中中间节点的控制,能够有效减少事故发生,降低事故发生之后所带来的损失;加强人员培训和规范管理是减少事故发生和发展的主要途径。

In order to study the relationship among the interference sources that cause the occurrence and development of road transport accidents of dangerous goods,the interference source network of road transport accidents of dangerous goods is established by means of event chain and complex network,and the key factors affecting the occurrence and development of dangerous goods road transport accidents are identified,First,162 traffic accident cases from 2005 to 2021 are collected and sorted through media reports and Internet websites to form an accident case database,and the accident case event chain is sorted out according to the causal relationship among interference sources.Then,all event chains are fused to form the interference source network of dangerous goods road transport accidents.The network diagram is drawn by Pajek software,the average path length and clustering coefficient of the network are calculated,and the overall topological characteristics of the network are analyzed.Finally,according to the individual characteristics of degree centrality and betweenness centrality of the nodes,the nodes in the network are divided into cause nodes,intermediate nodes and edge nodes.The statuses of the 3 types of nodes in the network are analyzed,and the control strategies are given respectively.The result shows that(1)The interference source network of dangerous goods road transport accidents has smaller average path length,larger clustering coefficient and small world characteristics,which increases the difficulty of handling,risk prediction and control of dangerous goods road transport accidents.(2)The subjective and objective factors in the cause nodes and intermediate nodes are the focus of the management and control.Strengthening the control of the cause nodes before the accident and the intermediate nodes during the accident can effectively reduce the occurrence and the loss of accidents.(3)Strengthening personnel training and standardized management are the main ways to reduce the occurrence and development of accidents.