税收激励能否促进企业减排?——基于增值税转型的实证研究

Can tax incentives encourage companies to reduce emissions?An empirical study based on value-added tax transformation

实现中国式现代化离不开绿色发展,税收激励政策在推动绿色发展的过程中发挥着宏观调控的作用。以2004—2009年增值税转型政策为准自然实验,运用1999—2013年中国工业企业及污染排放匹配数据和交叠双重差分估计模型,从微观市场主体行为视角评估增值税转型政策对企业减排的影响。研究结果显示,增值税转型政策实施后,企业工业废水排放量较转型前平均下降0.533个单位,工业废气排放量平均下降0.609个单位,且该政策的实施对高污染企业减排的积极作用更明显,这一结论经过稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制分析发现,增值税转型政策的实施使企业加大了对源头管控、产品创新与末端治理的投入力度,这一效应在非国有企业、议价能力强的企业、财政收入目标压力小和环境规制力度强的地区企业中更为明显。研究结论不仅从微观层面提供了财税政策支持绿色发展的经验证据,而且从理论层面为推动企业绿色发展、构建中国式现代化环境治理体系提供了决策参考。

The realization of Chinese-style modernization cannot be separated from green development,and tax incentive policy provides macro-level control in promoting such development.Based on a quasi-natural experiment offered by the adoption of a value-added tax(VAT)transformation policy from 2004 to 2009,this paper evaluates the impact of that policy on enterprise emission reduction.It examines the behavior of micro-market participants using the matched data of China's industrial enterprises and pollution emissions from 1999 to 2013 and a staggered DID estimation model.The results show that after the implementation of the VAT transformation policy,average industrial wastewater emissions decreased by 0.533 units,and average industrial waste gas emissions decreased by 0.609 units,and this effect is more obvious for high-polluting enterprises in particular.This conclusion remains valid after robustness testing.The mechanism analysis shows that the implementation of the policy causes enterprises to increase their investment in source control,product innovation,and end treatment,and this effect is more obvious in non-state-owned enterprises,enterprises with strong bargaining power,enterprises with low fiscal revenue target pressure and enterprises with strong environmental regulation.The conclusions not only provide empirical evidence of fiscal and taxation policies supporting green development from the micro level,but also provide decision-making reference for promoting the green development of enterprises and building a Chinese-style modern environmental governance system from the theoretical level.