数字化治税与企业创新泡沫:治理效应还是阻滞效应?

Digitalization of tax administration and enterprise innovation bubbles:governance effect or retardation effect?

产业政策滋生了大量的企业策略性创新行为,激起了创新泡沫。如何有效施策引导高质量创新成为政府面临的难题。从企业“迎合式创新”的假设出发,构建了一个嵌入地方政府税收治理行为的理论模型,发现提升税收治理能力能减少企业低质量创新产出。以“金税三期”作为准自然实验,研究数字化治税对企业创新的影响。实证分析发现,数字化治税能显著抑制企业策略性创新,但对实质性创新无明显影响,从而有效挤出了创新泡沫,经过一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立。异质性分析发现,数字化治税对创新禀赋较高、委托代理问题较严重、透明度较低、处在成长期或营商环境较好的企业作用效果更佳。机制分析发现,数字化治税通过增加企业预期面临的涉税风险和强化企业内部管控能力,实现企业创新的去泡沫化,发挥了“良性引导式”的治理效应,而非通过挤占现金流或收紧融资约束产生“增负挤出式”的阻滞效应。研究结论对中国未来培育高质量研发创新企业具有启示意义。

Industrial policies have spawned a large number of strategic innovation behaviors by enterprises and have stimulated the innovation bubble.The government has faced the challenge of how to effectively implement policies to guide high-quality innovation.Starting from the assumption of"catering innovation"in enterprises,this paper constructs a theoretical model embedded in the tax administration behavior of local government and finds that improving tax administration capacity can reduce low-quality innovation by enterprises.Taking the"Golden Tax Phase II"as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper studies the impact of digital tax administration on enterprise innovation.The empirical analysis finds that digital tax administration can significantly inhibit strategic innovation,but has no significant impact on substantive innovation,effectively squeezing out the innovation bubble.After a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still valid.Heterogeneity analysis shows that,the effect is greater for enterprises with a high innovation endowment,serious principal-agent problems,low transparency,in a growth period,or in a good business environment.The mechanism analysis finds that digital tax administration removes the innovation bubble by sharply increasing the tax-related risks that enterprises expect to face and strengthening their internal control capabilities,and playing a"benign guiding"role in governance rather than having a"negative crowding out"effect on cash flow or influencing financing constraints.The above conclusions are illuminating for cultivating high-quality innovation enterprises in China in the future.