1985—2018年宁夏主要粮食作物种植结构变化及其驱动力分析

Analysis of changes in planting structure of main grain crops and driving forces in Ningxia from 1985 to 2018

基于1985—2018年宁夏主要粮食作物播种面积、产量、单位面积收入等数据,利用数理统计和灰色关联度分析法,研究宁夏主要粮食作物种植结构的变化过程及其驱动因素。结果表明:1985—2018年宁夏小麦的种植面积及其占比呈现急剧下降趋势,种植面积由1985年的28.24万hm^(2)下降到2018年的12.83万hm^(2),下降了54.56%,种植面积占比从34.10%下降到11.02%;玉米的种植面积及其占比呈现快速增加趋势,种植面积增长了7.78倍,其占比由4.28%增长到26.69%;水稻的种植面积及其占比变化较小,种植面积稳定在5万~8万hm^(2),占比维持在6.5%左右。这三大粮食作物种植结构与粮食作物单产、单位面积收入、肉蛋奶产量关联度较强,引起种植结构变化的主要驱动因子是社会需求和经济利益。由此可知,1985—2018年,宁夏主要粮食作物中,小麦种植面积呈断崖式减少,而玉米种植面积大幅度增加,这一变化与经济社会发展带来的城乡居民生活水平的提高和种植经济效益的变化密切相关。

Based on the data of sown area,output and income per unit area of main grain crops in Ningxia from 1985 to 2018,mathematical statistics and grey relational analysis methods were used to analyze the changes and driving factors of the planting structure of main grain crops in Ningxia.The results verify that the planting area of wheat and its proportion in Ningxia showed a sharp downward trend from 1985 to 2018,with the planting area decreasing 54.56%,from 282400 hm^(2) in 1985 to 128300 hm^(2) in 2018,and the proportion in grain planting area decreasing from 34.10%in 1985 to 11.02%in 2018.The planting area of corn and its proportion increased rapidly,with the planting area increasing by 7.78 times,and its proportion increasing from 4.28%in 1985 to 26.69%in 2018.The planting area of rice and its proportion changed little,with the planting area stable at 50000 to 80000 hm^(2),and the proportion remaining at about 6.5%.The planting structure of the three main grain crops has a strong correlation with crop yields,income per unit area,and the yield of meat,eggs,and milk.The main driving factors for the changes in the planting structure are social needs and economic interests.It can be inferred that from 1985 to 2018,among the main grain crops in Ningxia,the planting area of wheat decreased sharply,while the planting area of corn increased significantly,and the change was closely related to the improvement of living standards and the economic benefits of planting.