大规模人群中疾病筛查混采检测效率评估

Efficiency evaluation of swab pooling detection in disease screening in a large population

目的评估混采检测工作效率,确定最适宜采样混合数,为完善混采检测技术规范提供科学依据。方法利用二项分布、群检测技术原理和Python语言编程技术,分析在不同人群感染率水平下和采用不同采样混合数时,混采检测的采样和检测工作量及其加权综合工作量变化规律;分析5合1、10合1和20合1混采检测的适用场景及工作效率。结果人群感染率越高,最适宜采样混合数越小,加权综合工作量增长率最小值(minimum weighted comprehensive workload growth rate,MWCWGR)越大(负数的绝对值越小),即工作效率提高越少;采样与检验单位工作量的权重比值(K)越大,最适宜采样混合数越大,MWCWGR越小(负数的绝对值越大),即工作效率提高越多。当人群感染率超过6%,且K值小于1/2时,MWCWGR即为正数,此时混采检测会增加工作量,降低工作效率,不宜采用。当K值依次为1/4、1/3、1/2、1、2、3和4时,5合1、10合1和20合1混采检测分别最适用于感染率在7‰~4%、2‰~9‰和5/万~2‰的人群,相应的MWCWGR分别为-11.10%~-45.87%、-16.02%~-64.28%和-18.00%~-72.08%。随着K值增大,5合1、10合1和20合1混采检测的最适宜感染率分别逐步提高,其加权综合工作量减少的幅度分别逐步增大。结论使用混采检测技术时,应根据人群感染率高低和采样与检验的单位工作量权重,正确选用最适宜采样混合数,以最大限度地提高工作效率。在制定混采检测技术规范时,应指明采样混合数的适用场景。

Objective To evaluate the impact of swab pooling strategy on the work efficiency,determine the optimum swab pooling size,and provide scientific reference for improving the technical specification of swab pooling detection.Methods The principle of binomial distribution,group detection technology,and Python language programming were used to analyze the change rules of sampling workload,the detection workload,and the weighted comprehensive workload of swab pooling detection under different levels of population infection rates with different swab pooling sizes,and to analyze the application conditions and work efficiency of 5 in 1,10 in 1,and 20 in 1 swab pooling detection.Results The higher the population infection rate is,the smaller the optimum swab pooling size is,and the larger the minimum weighted comprehensive workload growth rate(MWCWGR)is(the smaller the absolute value of the negative numbers is),which means that the improvement in work efficiency is less.The larger the weight ratio(K)of the unit workload of sampling to detection is,the larger the optimum swab pooling size is,and the smaller the MWCWGR is(the larger of the absolute value of the negative number is),indicating a greater improvement in work efficiency.When the population infection rate exceeds 6%and the K value is less than 1/2,MWCWGR is a positive number.In this case,the swab pooling detection will increase workload and reduce work efficiency,and should not be used.When the K values are 1/4,1/3,1/2,1,2,3,and 4,the 5 in 1,10 in 1,and 20 in 1 swab pooling detection are most suitable for populations with infection rates between 7‰to 4%,2‰to 9‰,and 5/10000 to 2‰,respectively.The corresponding MWCWGR ranges from-11.10%to-45.87%,-16.02%to-64.28%,and-18.00%to-72.08%,respectively.As the K value increases,the population infection rates suitable for 5 in 1,10 in 1,and 20 in 1 swab pooling detection gradually increase,and the magnitude of the weighted comprehensive workload reduction gradually increases separately.Conclusion When using swab pooling detection technology,it is necessary to correctly select the optimum swab pooling size based on the population infection rate and the unit workload weight of sampling to detection,in order to maximize the work efficiency.When formulating the technical specification for the swab pooling detection,it is necessary to specify the application conditions for the optimum swab pooling size.