家庭人口结构对居民消费水平的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Household Population Structure on Residents′Consumption Level

人口老龄化及生育率的下降对我国家庭消费产生了不容忽视的影响。以中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据库为基础,采用OLS回归及分位数回归法,探究家庭人口结构变动对家庭消费支出的影响。实证结果表明:老年成员比负向影响家庭的消费水平,且对低收入家庭影响更为显著;少儿成员比正向影响家庭的消费水平,对中等收入家庭影响更加显著,但对低收入家庭反而存在负向影响。在消费结构方面,少儿成员比的上升促进了家庭食品和文教娱乐消费水平,降低了交通、通信和医疗保健的消费水平;老年成员比的上升促进了家庭的医疗保健和食品消费水平,降低了家庭的衣着、日用品、交通通讯、文教娱乐消费水平。对此,政府和金融机构应当关注中国老龄化问题并制定合理的生育政策,根据家庭消费需求的变化趋势,引导家庭消费结构优化,实现消费升级。

The aging of population and the decline of fertility rate have exerted a great influence on household consumption in China.Based on the database of the China Family Panel Survey(CFPS),this paper uses OLS regression and quantile regression methods to explore the impact of changes in household population structure on household consumption expenditures.The ratio of elderly members negatively affects the consumption level of families,and the influence is more significant for low-income families;The ratio of children positively affects the consumption level of families,and has a more significant impact on middle-income families,but has a negative impact on low-income fa-milies.From the perspective of consumption structure,the increase in the ratio of children promotes the consumption level of household food,culture,education and entertainment,and reduces the consumption level of transportation,communication and medical care.The increase in the proportion of elderly members promotes the family′s health care and food consumption level,and reduces the family′s clothing,daily necessities,transportation and communication,culture,education and entertainment consumption level.In this regard,the government and financial institutions should pay attention to China′s aging problem,formulate reasonable childbirth policies,and guide the optimization of household consumption structure and realize consumption upgrade according to the changing trend of household consumption demand.