基于跨国面板数据的农业信贷对农业经济增长影响实证分析

Impact of agricultural credit on agricultural economic growth:Empirical evidence from transnational panel data

【目的】基于跨国面板数据分析农业信贷对农业经济增长的影响情况,为突破农业经济增长面临的资金短缺困境及推动乡村振兴提供参考依据。【方法】选取2010—2021年102个国家和地区农业、信贷和人口等方面的宏观数据为样本,构建面板数据固定效应模型,验证农业信贷对农业经济增长的影响,采用更换计量方法、更换被解释变量和滞后一期解释变量方法进行稳健性检验,采用工具变量法进行内生性检验,并对样本内国家和地区按收入水平分组开展异质性分析。【结果】实证分析结果表明,在全球范围内,农业信贷对农业经济增长具有极显著的促进作用(P<0.01,下同),稳健性检验和内生性检验结果证实该实证分析方法具有可信度。此外,作为控制变量的农村人口、耕地、化肥、农药和因特网用户数均对农业经济增长具有极显著正向影响。异质性分析结果表明,农业信贷对农业经济增长的影响在不同收入水平国家和地区间存在异质性。农业信贷在高收入、中高收入和中低收入国家和地区中存在极显著正向影响,在低收入国家和地区中影响不显著(P>0.05),说明收入水平低会导致农业信贷投入严重不足。【建议】建议我国继续扩大农业信贷规模,大力推行小额信贷;创新农业信贷产品和服务,优化信贷流程;健全乡村振兴多元投入机制,发挥市场配置资源的决定性作用;积极提升农业信贷配置资源效率,强化对粮食安全的信贷支持。

【Objective】The research analyzed the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural economic growth based on transnational panel data,and provided reference for breaking through the predicament of fund shortage faced by agricul-tural economic growth and promoting rural revitalization.【Method】Macro data(agriculture,credit,population,etc.)of 102 countries(regions)from 2010 to 2021 were selected to build a panel data fixed effect model to verify the impact of ag-ricultural credit on agricultural economic growth.The robustness test was conducted by changing measurement method and the explained variable,and lagging the explanatory variable.The endogeneity test was performed through the instru-mental variable method.The heterogeneity analysis was carried out by grouping sample countries(region)by income level.【Result】The empirical results proved that agricultural credit had an extremely significant positive impact on agricultural economic growth worldwide(P<0.01,the same below).The validity of these results was verified by robustness test and en-dogeneity test.In addition,as control variables,rural population,arable land,fertilizer,pesticide,and number of internet users had significant positive impacts on agricultural economic growth.Heterogeneity analysis showed that the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural economic growth was heterogeneous among countries and regions with different income levels.Agricultural credit had asignificant positive effect in high-income,upper-middle income,and lower-middle income countries and regions,but it was not significant in low-income countries and regions(P>0.05).It showed that low income level would lead to serious shortage of agricultural credit input.【Suggestion】It is suggested to expand the scale of agricul-tural credit,vigorously promote microfinance;innovate agricultural credit products and services,optimize credit process;improve the diversified investment mechanism for rural vitalization,give the market a decisive role in allocating resources;actively improve the allocative efficiency of agricultural credit in resources and provide greater credit support on food security.