环境规制政策下多方共治博弈建模与实证分析

Multi-stakeholder co-governance game modelling and empirical analysis under environmental regulation policies

科学精准实施污染物总量控制等环境规制政策,从源头倒逼政府、厂商和家庭等多方决策主体共同致力于绿色低碳转型,是做好“碳达峰、碳中和”工作的关键.运用动态随机一般均衡理论,构建以政府、厂商和家庭为多方共治决策主体的动态博弈模型,通过模型动态均衡求解、政策冲击情景设置、反事实分析和数值仿真等方式,探究污染物总量控制政策下多方博弈主体行为的动态演化机理.研究发现:污染物总量控制政策对生态环境质量和博弈主体的决策均有直接影响,且对前者的影响更为明显;污染物总量控制政策在短期会抑制经济增长,但从长期来看可以实现经济发展与环境改善的协同演进.生态环境多方共治机制有助于引导厂商开发减排技术,提高中央政府的污染物目标总量控制效率,引导公众进行亲环境行为投资.

Scientific and accurate implementation of environmental regulation policies,such as cap-and-trade,can force multi-stakeholder decision-making agents,including the government,manufacturers and families,to obtain green and low-carbon transformation,and is the key to achieve the goal of“carbon peaking and car-bon neutralization”.Based on the theory of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium,a dynamic game model with the government,firms,and families as the main decision-makers is constructed.The multi-stakeholder co-governance game behavior mechanism under cap-and-trade policy is explored through the dynamic equilib-rium solution,policy shock effect configuration,counterfactual analysis and numerical simulation.The results suggest that cap-and-trade policy affects both ecological environment quality and decision-making of the game participants,but with a greater impact on the former.Though cap-and-trade policy may inhibit economic devel-opment in the short run,it can achieve the synergy of economic development and environmental improvement in the long run.The environmental multi-stakeholder co-governance mechanism helps guidefirms to develop emission reduction technologies,improve the central government’s cap target efficiency,and guide the public to invest in pro-environmental behavior.