大国博弈下美国对俄金融制裁新突破与俄反制创新:例证及启示

Breakthroughs in the U.S.Financial Sanctions against Russia and Russia’s New Countermeasures in the Great Power Game:Examples and Implications

俄罗斯已成全球遭受国际制裁最多的经济体。俄乌冲突以来,美国及其盟友对俄金融制裁与以往相比有了新的突破,主要表现在:冻结俄央行和商业银行的外汇资产;将俄部分银行剔除出环球银行金融电讯协会(SWIFT);没收所在国俄罗斯人的私人资产;禁止俄用美元和通过美国的银行偿付债务,逼迫俄罗斯陷入债务违约;图谋对俄能源供应实施价格管制。俄罗斯积极实施反制裁措施,创新之处主要体现在:列出“不友好”国家和地区名单,实施精准反制裁;实施必要的外汇管制;对“不友好”国家和地区以卢布进行天然气贸易结算;允许用卢布偿还国际债务;主动推进“去美元化”;计划建立新的石油定价基准,反制美西方能源价格管制问题。由此带来的启示是:应重视金融制裁的经济效应;深入研究美西方对俄经济金融制裁的逻辑和规律;借鉴俄罗斯反制裁的创新模式,健全中国防范和应对外国经济制裁体系;降低美元的依赖,积极推动人民币国际化和数字人民币;加强多边合作,坚持对外开放格局。

Russia has become the economy internationally sanctioned in the world.Since the Russia⁃Ukraine conflict,the U.S.and its allies have made breakthroughs in financial sanctions against Russia compared to the past,mainly in freezing the foreign exchange assets of the Russian central bank and commercial banks;removing some Russian banks from the SWIFT;confiscating the private assets of Russians in host countries;forcing Russia into debt default by prohibiting Russia from paying its debts in the U.S.dollars and through the U.S.banks;attempting to impose price controls on Russian energy supplies.Russia is actively imple⁃menting counter⁃sanctions measures,making the list of“unfriendly”countries and regions,implementing precise counter⁃sanctions,imposing necessary foreign exchange controls,having the settlement of gas trade with“unfriendly”countries and regions in Russian rubles,actively promoting“de⁃dollarization”and intro⁃ducing a new oil pricing benchmark to counteract the U.S.and Western energy price cap.Therefore,it is very important to pay attention to the economic effect of financial sanctions,having an in⁃depth study of the logic and law of economic and financial sanctions against Russia by the U.S.and the West,learning from Russia’s innovative model of anti⁃sanctions,improving China’s system of preventing and responding to for⁃eign economic sanctions,reducing the dependence of the U.S.dollar,actively promoting the internationali⁃zation of the RMB and the digital RMB and strengthening multilateral cooperation and the pattern of opening up.