滑坡易发性评价方法和精度比较——以贵州省大方县为例

Evaluation Methods and Accuracy Comparison of Landslide Susceptibility——Dafang County of Guizhou Province is Taken as an Example

近年来贵州省突发性滑坡地质灾害时有发生,除在册滑坡隐患外,还有不少斜坡存在着滑坡的孕灾环境条件,通过新一轮的地质灾害风险评价发现,选用不同的风险评价体系对地质灾害易发性的影响很大,从而影响地质灾害防治、国土空间规划和政府决策等基础数据。本次以大方县滑坡数据为例,选取与滑坡相关的7个影响因子:坡度、坡向、相对高差、工程地质岩组、距水系距离、距构造距离以及土地利用类型,采用层次分析法(AHP)、信息量模型(I)及耦合模型(AHP-I)对研究区进行滑坡易发性评价,并采用滑坡点频率统计和成功率曲线(ROC)对3种模型的评价精度进行检验。通过比较,选取精度高的耦合模型(AHP-I)作为滑坡易发性评价方法,从而能更加精确地评价大方县的滑坡易发性,为山区县级区域滑坡灾害的防灾减灾提供决策依据与参考。

In recent years,geological disasters of sudden landslides have occurred frequently in Guizhou provinceBesides the registered potential hazards of landslides,there are also many slopes with disaster-genera-ting environmental conditions,different risk assessment systems have great influence on geological hazard sus-ceptibility,which affects basic data such as geological hazard prevention,Land Space Planning and government decision-makingThis time take the large direction landslide data as an example,seven factors related to land-slides were selected:slope,aspect,relative elevation difference,engineering geological rock group,distance from water system,distance from structure and land use type,AHP,information quantity model(I)and coupling model(AHP-I)were used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility in the study area,the evaluation accuracy of the three models is tested by using landslide frequency statistics and success rate curve(Roc).By comparison,the high-precision coupling model(AHP-I)is selected as the method of landslide vulnerability evaluation,so that the landslide vulnerability of Dafang County can be evaluated more accurately,it can provide decision-making basis and reference for landslide disaster prevention and reduction in mountain area.