四川盆地PM_(2.5)污染的人群暴露风险研究

PM_(2.5) Exposure Risk of Population in Sichuan Basin

为揭示四川盆地城乡人群的PM_(2.5)暴露风险特征,通过比较PM_(2.5)暴露强度(EI)、基于原始浓度的PM_(2.5)暴露风险(R)和基于人口加权浓度的PM_(2.5)暴露风险(R^(*))3种评估指标,对四川盆地17个城市共80个国控环境监测站点2016-2020年的PM_(2.5)浓度数据进行分析,并利用综合暴露-响应(IER)模型对四川盆地2016—2020年年均归因于PM_(2.5)污染的疾病致死人数进行评估。结果表明:(1)在四川盆地R^(*)是一种综合考量人口分布及人群环境暴露参数的PM_(2.5)暴露风险评估指标,春、秋季R^(*)高值区集中分布在盆地中西部及南部,夏季R~*高值区集中分布在盆地中西部,冬季R^(*)高值区扩展到整个盆地中部及东部,且各季节R^(*)低值区主要位于盆地周边地区,四川盆地2016—2020年年均R^(*)最大值、最小值分别出现在成都(2.296×10^(-5))、雅安(3.072×10^(-6)),与人口分布的一致性表明未来PM_(2.5)暴露风险防控重点区域应着眼于人口集中的地区;(2)从城乡人群差异看,城市人群R^(*)值于45~<60岁(12~<15岁)达到最高(低)值,18岁以上成年人群的R^(*)值比18岁以下未成年人群高;农村人群R^(*)值于9~<12岁(15~<18岁)达到最高(低)值,成年人群中峰值出现在18~<45岁人群;(3)四川盆地2016-2020年年均可归因于PM_(2.5)污染的健康损失(即过早死亡人数)为12.65万人,其中由中风(STK)、缺血性心脏病(IHD)、慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)和肺癌(LC)4种疾病导致的过早死亡人数占比分别为52.42%、26.54%、13.37%和7.67%,表明四川盆地大气污染导致的健康负担仍然很重,需要实施更加严格的空气污染控制政策。

To reveal the exposure risk characteristics of PM_(2.5) in urban and rural populations in Sichuan Ba-sin,the PM_(2.5) concentration data of 80 national-controlled environmental monitoring sites from 17 cities in Sichuan Basin from 2016 to 2020 are analyzed using the exposure intensity(EI),exposure risk based on the original concentration(R),and exposure risk based on the population-weighted concentration(R*).In ad-dition,the integrated exposure-response(IER)model is used to assess the disease deaths attributable to PM_(2.5) pollution from 2016 to 2020.The results are as follows:(1)R^(*)is a comprehensive evaluation index that takes into account population distribution and population exposure parameters,and can show the rela-tive risk of PM2.5 exposure in Sichuan Basin more accurately.The high R*areas are concentrated in the west-central and southern part of the basin during spring and autumn,in the west-central part of the basin during summer,and extend to the central and eastern parts of the basin during winter.The low value of R^(*)in each season is mainly located in the peripheral areas of the basin.The maximum and minimum annual av-erage R^(*)values occur in Chengdu(2.296×10^(-5))and Ya'an(3.072×10^(-6)),respectively.The consistency of R^(*)with the population distribution indicates that future PM_(2.5) exposure risk prevention and control should focus on the areas where the population is concentrated.(2)The highest(lowest)value of R^(*)is reached in the urban population between 45-<60 years old(12-<15 years old),and the R^(*)of the adult population is higher than that of the minor population below 18 years old;the highest(lowest)value of R^(*)is reached in the rural population between 9-<12 years old(15-<18 years old),and the peak value in the adult population is found in the population between 18-<45 years old.(3)From 2016 to 2020,the av-erage health loss attributable to PM_(2.5)(i.e.,premature deaths)in Sichuan Basin is 126,500,of which stroke(STK),ischemic heart disease(IHD),chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and lung cancer(LC)account for 52.42%,26.54%,13.37%,and 7.67%,respectively.This indicates that the health burden caused by air pollution in Sichuan Basin is still extremely high,requiring an aggressive air pollution control strategy.