2022年东南亚地区发展回顾与2023年展望(笔谈)

A Retrospect of 2022 and Prospect of 2023:Expert Talks on Southeast Asia

2022年,国际形势错综复杂,新冠疫情持续肆虐,乌克兰危机不断升级,东南亚地区虽经历了系列内外风险与挑战,但区域政治、经济、外交和经贸合作等领域发展成效显著。政治方面,东帝汶、菲律宾和马来西亚等国相继完成政府换届,泰国、柬埔寨等国即将进行国家大选,缅甸危机仍在持续。地区政治发展整体平稳,部分国家政局稳定存在不确定性。经济方面,为加快促进疫后经济复苏,东南亚地区国家调整了宏观经济政策和财政政策,经济发展整体保持了持续复苏的态势,部分国家经济增速超出官方预期。同时,由于世界经济面临着“滞胀”的风险,2023年东南亚地区经济发展保持持续复苏的同时也存在诸多不稳定和不确定性因素。外交方面,东南亚地区外交压力持续增大,更加重视战略自主,强调维护东盟“中心地位”,将持续推进多边对话合作,确保本地区总体和平稳定。中国—东盟经贸合作方面,双边贸易增长强劲并创历史新高,双向投资与产业合作取得新进展,互联互通基础设施成果丰硕,可持续发展成为合作新热点,澜湄合作打造成为区域合作“金色样板”,中国—东盟经贸合作取得了突出进展,伴随着RCEP的全面实施和中国—东盟自由贸易区3.0版谈判加快推进,将进一步激发和释放中国—东盟经贸合作的红利。

In 2022,the political,economic,diplomatic,economic and trade cooperation and other fields in Southeast Asia have achieved remarkable results despitethe international situation being complex as COviD-19 continued to rage,the crisis in Ukraine escalated,Southeast Asia experienced a series of internal and external risks and challenges.In terms of politics,the overall development in the region was stable,but there was uncertainty in some countries.The countries such as East Timor,the Philippines,and Malaysia have successively undergone government changes.In 2023,countries such as Thailand and Cambodia are about to hold national elections,and the Myanmar crisis is still ongoing;in terms of economy,in order to accelerate economic recovery,Southeast Asian countries have adjusted their macroeconomic and fiscal policies,maintaining a sustained recovery overall,with some countries experiencing economic growth rates exceeding official expectations.However,there are many unstable and uncertain factors in Southeast Asiafacing the risk of"stagflation"in the world economy in 2023;in terms of diplomacy,with the increasing pressure of the diplomatic situation,Southeast Asia has placed greater emphasis on strategic autonomy,highlighted the maintenance of AsEAN's"central position",continuously promoted multilateral dialogue and cooperation,and ensured overall peace and stability in the region;in terms of China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation,bilateral trade has grown strongly and reached a new historical high,two-way investment and industrial cooperation have made new progress,connectivity infrastructure has achieved fruitful results,and sustainable development has become a new hotspot of cooperation,the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation has created a golden model for regional cooperation,and China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation has made outstanding progress.The comprehensive implementation of RCEP and the accelerated progress of the negotiations on Version 3.0 China ASEAN Free Trade Area willfurther stimulate and release the dividends of bilateral economic and trade cooperation.