多重挑战下的稳健发展——印度尼西亚2022年回顾与2023年展望

Steady Development Amidst Challenges:A Retrospect of 2022 and Prospect of 2023 in Indonesia

2022年,印度尼西亚政治和社会形势稳定,佐科政府成功应对新冠疫情,设法推动国家发展计划的落实,特别是民生保障投入增加及新首都的建设得到民众较高认同。印度尼西亚政府还较好地应对了燃油、食用油价格上涨及《刑法》修正案的颁布所引发的社会反弹。佐科政府政绩出众,以致社会上出现要求延长其任期的声音并引发各方争论。各政党围绕下一届总统选举和议会选举的竞争与合作互动趋于频繁,形成了3个不同的阵营,仅斗争民主党尚独立于政党联盟之外。总统候选人阿尼斯和普拉博沃分别获“印度尼西亚变革联盟”和“大印度尼西亚复兴联盟”的支持,最终可能出现3组候选人搭档同台竞争的格局。印度尼西亚经济加速复苏,政府继续实施“经济复苏计划”,推进金融和财税改革及努力控制通货膨胀。经济增速实现了2014年以来的新高,大部分宏观经济指标好于预期,内需仍是经济增长的关键支撑,出口受益于全球大宗商品价格的上涨,投资稳步增长,制造业、采矿业、交通运输业成为发展亮点。外交方面,印度尼西亚通过艰辛努力,促成多数国家领导人出席二十国集团领导人第17次峰会,峰会的成功举办显著提高了印度尼西亚的国际声望。印度尼西亚积极与邻国开展海洋划界谈判,与越南达成专属经济区划界协议被视为“海洋外交”的最大成果。印度尼西亚与中国、美国、日本等大国关系有不同程度进展。2023年,印度尼西亚各政治派别的选举竞争将更加激烈,经济前景谨慎乐观,外交将聚焦于东盟地区事务。

The political and social situation in Indonesia was stable in 2022.Jokowi's Cabinet has successfully responded to the COviD-19 pandemic and promoted the implementation of the national development plan.In particular,the increased spending in people's livelihood and the construction of IKN Nusantara were highly evaluated by the public.The Indonesian government has also responded well to the social backlash caused by the rise in fuel and edible oil prices and the promulgation of the draft of the New Criminal Code(Rancangan Undang-Undang Kitab Undang-Undang Hukum Pidana,RUU KUHP).Jokowi's outstanding achievements have led to voices calling for an extension of his presidential term,which sparked heated debate among the public.The competition and cooperation of political parties around the next presidential and parliamentary elections are becoming more intense,marked by the forming of three different coalitions while the PDiP is still independent of the party alliances.Presidential candidates Anies and Prabowo have respectively received support from"the Coalition for Change"and the"Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition",which may ultimately lead to a competition among three groups of candidates.In addition,the Indonesian economic recovery has been accelerating,which is attributed to the Economic Recovery Plan,promotion of financial and tax reforms,and efforts to control inflation.The economic growth rate has reached a new high since 2014,with most macroeconomic indicators better than expected.Domestic demand has remained a key support for Indonesia's economic growth,and its exports have benefited a lot from the rise in global commodity prices,and investment steadily increased.Some sectors such as manufacturing,mining,and transportation have become the highlights.In terms of diplomacy,Indonesia has made arduous efforts to push the attendance of G2o leaders at the Bali Summit,the success of which has significantly increased Indonesia's international reputation.Indonesia actively engages in maritime delimitation negotiations with neighboring countries.The reaching of an exclusive economic zone delimitation agreement with Vietnam is considered the greatest achievement of"maritime diplomacy".Indonesia has also made varying degrees of progress in relations with major powers such as China,the United States,and Japan.In 2023,the election competition in Indonesia will become more intense,the economic outlook will be cautiously optimistic and its diplomacy willfocus on ASEAN regional affairs.