基于贝叶斯网络的地铁车辆空调系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of metro vehicle air-conditioning system based on Bayesian network

通过对地铁车辆空调系统可靠性分析确定系统薄弱环节,是确保设备安全可靠运行的关键技术之一。针对地铁车辆空调系统结构复杂、可靠性分析困难,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性分析方法。通过对系统结构分析,结合现场故障数据,确定系统关键部件故障特征,构建基于贝叶斯网络的故障树可靠性推理模型,实现系统的可靠性分析。结果表明,地铁车辆空调系统发生故障的失效概率为0.025 5,其中电子膨胀阀为系统故障的最主要原因,通风机电机烧坏为系统的薄弱环节。

The weak link of the metro vehicle air-conditioning system can be obtained by the reliability analysis,which is one of the key technologies to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the equipment.Aiming at the complex structure and difficult reliability analysis of metro vehicle air-conditioning system,a reliability analysis method based on Bayesian network is proposed.By analyzing the system structure and combining with the on-site fault data,the fault characteristics of the key components of the system are determined,and the fault tree reliability reasoning model based on Bayesian network is built to realize the reliability analysis of the system.The results show that the failure probability of metro vehicle air-conditioning system is 0.0255,in which the electronic expansion valve is the main cause of system failure,and the fan motor is the weak link.