研发双循环溢出、价值链攀升与制造业技术跃迁——来自2008—2020年的经验证据

R&D Double Cycle Spillover, Value Chain Climbing and Manufacturing Technology Transition:Empirical Evidence from 2008-2020

新发展格局下的制造业技术跃迁不仅取决于研发双循环溢出,在很大程度上还受到价值链攀升的影响。利用2008—2020年中国制造业面板数据,估计研发双循环溢出与价值链攀升对制造业技术跃迁的效应,结果表明,随着智能资本全面介入人工智能、大数据等新技术领域,新需求持续迭代导致的供需低适配性使得研发双循环溢出对制造业技术跃迁的正向效应不显著。进一步纳入价值链攀升后发现,以“锯齿型引领”为特征的研发双循环溢出能够降低中国制造业断链、断供风险,并通过溢出赋能推动制造业附加值和竞争力提升,促进中国制造业向全球价值链两端延伸,对制造业技术跃迁具有显著正向效应。

Since the reform and opening up,China's manufacturing industry has transformed from a follower to a counterpart of those in the developed countries in the process of technology imitation and equipment introduction by using large-caliber international circulation,and has realized the catch-up of technology.The"zigzag lead"between China and the United States has broken the previous US-led global value chain system.With the continuous escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States,the supply side of R&D spillovers is blocked.The"supply decoupling"of key and core technologies and the"chain decoupling"of global industrial transfer have further increased the risk of anti-globalization,and the marginal contribution of using international circulation to promote the technological leap of China's manufacturing industry is increasingly weak.The shift from"spillover inside"to"internal and external spillovers"has become an important support for the transformation to a manufacturing power under the new development pattern.It is urgent to verify if the traditional R&D international circulation spillover will help the manufacturing industry break through the R&D obstacles,and under the new development pattern,what kind of R&D spillovers China's manufacturing industry has to effectively promote the technology leap of manufacturing industry,and then move forward to a manufacturing power.The climbing of the value chain is an important guarantee for unblocking the R&D spillover channels,promoting the transformation of the national value chain to the global value chain,and realizing the technological leap of manufacturing industry by building a R&D system centered on China's manufacturing industry.Strengthening and expanding the regional and local effects of R&D spillovers has become the only way for China's manufacturing industry to use R&D spillovers to drive up the global value chain,and realize the technological leap of manufacturing industry.Especially since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,the accelerated return of manufacturing industries in major developed countries has impeded the international R&D circulation spillover.According to the development pattern of global and regional innovation,the domestic and international R&D circulation spillovers have entered a rebalancing state in the framework of big cycle.This rebalancing state determines the embedding position and climbing height of manufacturing industry in the global value chain,and the R&D double-cycle spillover and value chain climbing are the decisive factors affecting the technological leap of China's manufacturing industry.On the basis of the existing literature and the panel data of China's manufacturing industry from 2008 to 2020,this paper estimates the effects of R&D double-cycle spillovers and value chain climbing on the technological transition of manufacturing industry.The results show that with the comprehensive expansion of intelligent capital in new technology fields such as artificial intelligence and big data,the low adaptability of supply and demand caused by the continuous iteration of new demand makes the positive effect of R&D double-cycle spillover on the technological transition of manufacturing industry insignificant.By further incorporating the value chain climb,it is found that the R&D double-cycle spillover characterized by"zigzag leading"reduces the risk of"chain break"and"supply break"in China's manufacturing industry;it improves the added value and competitiveness of the manufacturing industry,promotes the extension of China's manufacturing industry to both ends of the global value chain,and has a significant positive effect on the technological leap of the manufacturing industry.Compared with the existing literature,the contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects.First,considering that different types of R&D spillovers have significant differences in the technological transition of manufacturing industry,this paper examines the mechanism of R&D double-cycle spillovers affecting the technological transition of manufacturing industry on the basis of distinguishing different R&D spillover channels under the new development pattern.Secondly,starting from the rebalancing state in the framework of the R&D big cycle,it introduces the value chain climbing into the model,and makes a deep investigation of the dynamic mechanism of the R&D double cycle spillover and the value chain climbing on the manufacturing technology transition.