基于五元联系数的城市桥梁运营期风险态势评估

Risk Situation Assessment of Urban Bridge Operation Period Based on Five-element Connection Number

为有效分析城市桥梁运营期风险的动态变化并预测其发展趋势,基于五元联系数集对分析理论对城市桥梁运营期进行风险态势评估研究。在建立城市桥梁运营期风险评价指标体系的基础上,采用G1法和熵权法计算主客观权重,并引入博弈论组合赋权法确定评价指标的综合权重系数,构建基于五元联系数的城市桥梁运营期风险态势评估模型,通过对重庆市某桥梁的运营风险评估验证模型的可行性与有效性。结果表明:该桥梁的联系势为同势,整体处于低风险状态,风险评估结果与项目实际调研情况一致;评估模型能够有效分析城市桥梁运营期风险状态和变化趋势,可为城市桥梁的运营风险管控提供有益支撑。

In order to effectively analyze the dynamic changes of risks during the operation period of urban bridges and predict their development trends,a research on risk situation assessment of urban bridge operation period was carried out based on the analysis theory of the five-element connection number set pair.Based on the establishing a risk evaluation index system of urban bridges in operation period,the G1 method and the entropy weight method were used to calculate the subjective and objective weights,and the combined weighting method of game theory was introduced to determine the comprehensive weight coefficient of the evaluation index,and the risk situation assessment model of urban bridge operation period was constructed based on the five-element connection number.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the model were verified by the operational risk assessment of a bridge in Chongqing.The results show that the associated potential of the urban bridge is in the same potential area,and the bridge is in a low risk state as a whole,and the risk assessment results are consistent with the actual investigation.The evaluation model can effectively analyze the risk status and change trend of urban bridges during the operation period,which can provide beneficial support for the operation risk management and control of urban bridges.