贵州武陵山区植被NDVI时空演变及其未来持续性特征

The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Future Sustainability Characteristics of Vegetation NDVI in the Wuling Mountains of Guizhou Province

识别植被时空演变动态特征对于预判生态环境恢复建设成效具有重大的科学意义。然而,在气候变化和人类活动双重背景下,植被演变过程认识并不明确。本研究基于2000-2020年MODIS NDVI数据,耦合Theil-Sen趋势法、Mann-Kendall显著性检验法和Hurst指数揭示了贵州武陵山区NDVI变化趋势及未来持续性特征。结果表明:(1) 2000-2020年间,贵州武陵山区NDVI总体呈现波动上升趋势,平均增速0.03/a,93.75%的区域呈现增长趋势,仅6.26%的区域表现为降低现象。(2)中北部及西部区域是NDVI增长的关键区域,而凤冈、余庆、碧江及松桃县等地区NDVI退化明显。(3)在未来,贵州武陵山区NDVI将呈现大面积的反持续性分布状态,仅24.87%的区域表现出弱的正持续性,而75.12%的区域将可能出现反持续性,即NDVI未来有较大的退化风险。研究为贵州武陵山区植被恢复成效评估和优化管理提供了理论指导和空间定位。

Identifying the dynamic characteristics of vegetation spatiotemporal evolution has significant scientific significance for predicting the effectiveness of ecological environment restoration and construction.However,the understanding of vegetation evolution in the dual context of climate change and human activities is not clear.This study has coupled Theil-Sen trend method,Mann-Kendall significance test method,and Hurst index to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution trend and future sustainability characteristics of NDVI in the Wuling Mountains of Guizhou based on MODIS NDVI data from 2000 to 2020.The results showed that:(1)The overall NDVI in the Wuling Mountains of Guizhou showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2020,with an average growth rate of 0.03/a.93.75%of the regions showed an increasing trend,while only 6.26%of the regions showed a decreasing phenomenon.(2)The central northern and western regions are key areas for NDVI growth,while NDVI degradation is evident in areas such as Fenggang,Yuqing,Bijiang,and Songtao counties.(3)In the future,the NDVI in the Wuling Mountains of Guizhou will exhibit a large-scale anti persistence distribution,with only 24.87%of the areas showing weak positive persistence,while 75.12%of the areas may exhibit anti persistence,indicating a significant risk of NDVI degradation in the future.The study provides theoretical guidance and spatial positioning for the evaluation and optimization management of vegetation restoration effectiveness in the Wuling mountainous area of Guizhou.