中国数字经济发展质量的综合评价及预测

Comprehensive Evaluation and Prediction of the Development Quality of China’s Digital Economy

为避免我国数字经济粗放式发展,研究其发展质量具有十分重要的现实意义。为此,依据数字经济发展质量的本质特征,在海选指标体系的基础上,通过使用信息熵和稀疏主成分方法构建中国数字经济发展质量的评价指标体系,测算评价指标体系相对于海选指标体系的信息贡献,并用稀疏主成分方法得到2010—2022年我国数字经济发展质量的综合评价值,以解决各指标之间的信息重叠问题。同时,运用灰色预测方法预测我国未来几年的数字经济发展质量,并提出评价指标体系要兼顾信息量与指标数、用好数字经济快速发展的战略机遇期等建议。

In order to avoid the extensive development of China’s digital economy,it is very important to study the quality of its development.Therefore,according to the essential characteristics of the development quality of digital economy,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of the development quality of China’s digital economy by using information entropy and sparse principal component method on the basis of the audition index system,and calculates the information contribution of the evaluation index system relative to the audition index system.The sparse principal component method is used to obtain the comprehensive evaluation value of the development quality of China’s digital economy from 2012 to 2022,which solves the problem of information overlap among indicators.At the same time,the grey prediction method is used to predict the development quality of China’s digital economy in the next few years,and some suggestions are put forward that the evaluation index system should take into account the information quantity and the number of indicators,and make good use of the strategic opportunity period of the rapid development of digital economy.