产能过剩的分类以及对治理的启示

Classification of Overcapacity and Implications for Governance

基于产能过剩的产生原因、持续时间、影响范围与严重程度等维度,可将产能过剩归纳为三种类型,即摩擦性产能过剩、周期性产能过剩与结构性产能过剩,不同类型产能过剩需要治理的紧迫程度以及重点采用的治理方法也应有所区分。摩擦性产能过剩是因供需双方搜索信息、商品交易等需要时间,以及产业链技术进步不同步、信息不完全与企业策略性行为等引起的暂时性产能过剩。其所涉及的行业较少,过剩程度较低,持续时间较短,应当尽量少干预,必要时应主要通过完善市场建设等手段适当干预。周期性产能过剩是因为经济运行波动、宏观调控政策转变等引起的产能过剩,往往涉及多个周期性行业,过剩程度相对较高并可能持续数年,可通过跨周期调节政策适当干预。结构性产能过剩是产业规划偏离实际、需求结构转型、生产技术更迭等引起的产能过剩,可能在单个或多个行业发生。过剩程度较为严重且通过市场机制很难自动恢复供需平衡状态,是产能过剩治理的重点对象,应当通过包括供给侧结构性改革与需求侧管理等在内的综合性举措进行治理。

Overcapacity can be roughly classified into three types:frictional overcapacity,cyclical overcapacity and structural overcapacity according to the duration,scope of influence and severity of overcapacity.The urgency of different types of overcapacity and the key methods to address them should also be differentiated.Frictional overcapacity is always temporary overcapacity caused by the time required by the supply and demand parties to search for information,commodity transactions,as well as incomplete information and strategic behavior of enterprises.It influences fewer industries with a low degree of overcapacity and a short duration,and should be intervened as little as possible,mainly through improving market construction and other means when necessary.Cyclical overcapacity refers to the overcapacity caused by fluctuations in economic operation and changes in macro-control policies,often involving multiple cyclical industries.The degree of cyclical overcapacity is relatively high and may last for several years,so it should be properly intervened through cross cycle adjustment policies.Structural overcapacity refers to the overcapacity caused by improper implementation of industrial policies,transformation of demand structure,change of production technology.It may occur in a single or multiple industries and should be addressed through comprehensive measures including supply-side structural reform and demand-side management.