基于贝叶斯BWM-VIKOR法的机场运行韧性评估方法

Airport Operation Resilience Assessment Method Based on Bayesian BWM-VIKOR Method

为科学客观评估机场运行韧性,寻找提升机场运行韧性的关键指标,降低异常状况对机场日常运行的影响,依据非常态机场运行性能的变化过程,构建了机场运行韧性评估指标体系。并利用贝叶斯最佳-最差法(best-worst method,BWM)克服传统最佳-最差法受异常数据值影响较大的缺陷,确定了各韧性指标的权重;同时借助多源异构多准则折衷排序法(vise kriterijumska optimizacija kompromisno resenje,VIKOR)对国内某机场运行韧性进行评估算例分析;最后,基于MATLAB软件所获得的算例评估值及韧性排序结果,验证了评估模型准确性。研究结果可为机场管理部门寻找机场运行韧性提升关键节点、降低异常状况发生率及对其机场运行的扰动强度提供一定的理论支撑与决策参考。

In order to scientifically and objectively evaluate the airports operational resilience,find key indicators to improve the airports operational resilience,and reduce the impact of abnormal conditions on the airports daily operations,an airport operational resilience assessment index system was constructed,which is based on the changing process of airport operational performance under abnormal conditions.The Bayesian best-worst method(BWM)was used to overcome the defect that the traditional best-worst method was greatly affected by abnormal data values,and the weight of each toughness index was determined.Meanwhile,vise kriterijumska optimizacija kompromisno resenje(VIKOR)method was used to assess the resilience of airport operations.Finally,based on MATLAB software,the evaluation values and ranking results of the examples were obtained,which verifies the accuracy of the evaluation model.Through the research results,certain theoretical support and decision-making reference would be provided for airport authorities to find key nodes to improve the resilience of airport operations,reduce abnormal conditions and disturbances in airport operations.