基于演化博弈的民航高铁竞合策略研究

Research on Competition and Cooperation Strategy of Civil Aviation High-speed Rail Based on Evolutionary Game

日益增多的国内外客流量,使得民航和高铁之间的合作变得尤为重要。如何加强民航和高铁之间的协同效应,有助于提升整个交通系统的运输效率。论文基于竞合博弈和演化博弈理论探究民航和高铁之间的行为策略选择及其演化规律。引入“初始合作意愿”“投入成本”“违约收益”“超额收益”“违约金”等参数并探究其对于策略选择动态演化的影响。结果表明:“初始合作意愿”“超额收益”“违约金”对合作的稳定性具有正向促进作用。最后,为推进民航高铁协同发展提出对策建议。

The increasing domestic and international passenger flow makes the cooperation between civil aviation and high-speed rail more important.How to strengthen the synergy between civil aviation and high-speed rail will help improve the transportation efficiency of the entire transportation system.This paper explores the behavioral strategy selection and evolution law between civil aviation and high-speed rail based on competition and cooperation game and evolutionary game theory.Parameters such as"initial cooperation willingness","input cost","default return","excess return","liquidated damages"are introdured,and the impact on the dynamic evolution of strategy selection is explored.The results show that"initial willingness to cooperate","excess returns"and"liquidated damages"have a positive effect on the stability of cooperation.Finally,countermeasures and sug⁃gestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of civil aviation high-speed rail.