设施丑橘适宜气象条件及预报模型研究

Study on the Suitable Meteorological Conditions and Forecast Model of Citrus Reticulata'Buzhihuo'in Facilities

为探索定州设施栽培丑橘小气候变化规律,优化设施大棚管理措施,实现北方设施栽培丑橘高质高产,利用2020年7月至2021年6月气象观测资料,分析了定州设施栽培丑橘需冷量及适宜性特点,并通过逐步回归方法建立了棚内温湿度预报模型。结果表明:定州设施丑橘低温积累基本可在1月末满足,2月初宜进行棚内增温。设施内温度条件整体与引种地资中持平,日照条件远高于资中,水分条件较差,需加强关键物候期水分管理。棚内温湿度与棚外气温、相对湿度、降水量、风速呈不同程度的显著性相关,按照晴天、多云、阴天3种天气类型,构建了定州设施栽培丑橘小气候要素预指报模型,拟合及试报效果均较佳。

In order to explore the microclimate change patterns of Citrus reticulata Buzhihuo'in facilities of Dingzhou,optimize facility greenhouse management measures,and achieve high-quality and high yield of Citrus reticulata in the north,this paper utilized meteorological observation data from July 2020 to June 2021 to analyze the cooling demand and suitability characteristics of Dingzhou Citrus reticulata'Buzhihuo',and established a greenhouse temperature and humidity prediction model by stepwise regression method.The results showed that the low temperature accumulation of Citrus reticulata'Buzhihuo'in the facilities of Dingzhou could be basically satisfied in the end of January,and it was appropriate to increase the greenhouse temperature in early February.Facility planting could achieve high climate similarity with the origin.The overall temperature condition in the facility was the same as that in Zizhong County.The sunshine condition was much higher than that in Zizhong County,and the water condition was poor,so the water management in the key phenological period should be strengthened.The temperature and humidity inside the greenhouse were significantly correlated with the temperature,relative humidity,precipitation and wind speed outside the greenhouse to varying degrees.According to three weather types of sunny day,cloudy day and overcast day,Citrus reticulata'Buzhihuo'microclimate element forecast model in the facilities of Dingzhou was constructed,and the ftting and test results were well.