甘肃省粮食产量影响因素研究--基于粮食安全视角

A Study on the Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in Gansu Province Based on the Perspective of Food Security

明确粮食的生产能力,对于确保区域粮食安全有着重要意义,基于“粮食安全”视角和“藏粮于地,藏粮于技”的国家战略思考,选取七个指标通过SPSS计量经济软件构建多元线性回归模型对甘肃省粮食产量影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:其主要影响因素播种面积、农用化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、农村用电量和成灾面积影响程度分别为63.8%、22.8%、25.9%、17%、-10.7%。在此基础上,从甘肃省实际情况出发,提出相关建议,以期为农业部门制定农业政策提供参考。

To clarify the production capacity of grain is of great significance to ensure regional food security.Based on the perspective of"food security"and the national strategy of"hiding grain in the land,hiding grain in the technology",seven indicators were selected to analyze the factors influencing the grain production in Gansu Province by constructing the multivariate linear regression model through the SPSS econometric software.The results show that the main influencing factors are 63.8%,22.8%,25.9%,17%and-10.7%for sown area,agricultural fertilizer application,effective irrigated area,rural electricity consumption,and disaster area,respectively.On this basis,relevant suggestions are put forward from the actual situation in Gansu Province,with a view to providing reference for agricultural departments to formulate agricultural policies.