2011-2021年广东省深圳市宝安区流行性感冒流行趋势的Joinpoint回归分析

Analysis on joinpoint regression of influenza epidemic trends in Baoan district,Shenzhen city,Guangdong province from 2011 to 2021

目的 分析深圳市宝安区流行性感冒(以下简称流感)的流行特征及变化趋势,为防控流感提供有效的措施依据。方法 随机抽取宝安区两个街道,收集2011-2021年的流感的发病报告数据,利用描述性流行病学分析流感发病数据;运用Joinpoint回归模型分析发病数变化趋势,计算流感发病数年度变化百分比(APC)、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。结果 2011-2021年深圳市宝安区两个街道流感病例5 051例,年报告流感发病率从2011年的0.03/10万上升到2019年的12.12/10万,以2019年发病率最高。Joinpoint回归趋势分析显示,流感年发病数变化的折点出现在2014年,先上升后下降,总体呈上升趋势,年均上升53.2%(AAPC=53.2%,Z=6.12,P<0.05)。不同年龄组的发病趋势与总体发病趋势一致,呈先上升后下降,<18岁病例数年均上升速度最快(AAPC=63.4%,Z=12.56,P<0.05)。不同性别的发病趋势转折有2个,分别为2013年及2019年。2011-2013年呈现快速上升,2013-2019年平缓上升,2019-2021年下降的趋势。男性年均上升速度最快(AAPC=54.9%,Z=9.35,P<0.05)。结论 2011-2021年深圳市宝安区流感发病数总体呈上升趋势,防护措施的重心尽可能放在小于18岁年龄段人群。新冠疫情的防控措施有利于降低流感的发病率。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of influenza in Bao'an district,Shenzhen city,so as to provide an effective basis for measures to prevent and control influenza.Methods Two streets in Bao'an district were randomly selected to collect the reported incidence data of influenza from 2011 to 2021,and descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the influenza incidence data;the trend of incidence was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model,and the annual percent change(APC) and average annual percent change(AAPC) of influenza were calculated.Results There were 5 051 cases of influenza in 2 streets of Bao'an district,Shenzhen city from 2011 to 2021,and the annual reported incidence increased from 0.03/10^(5) in 2011 to 12.12/10^(5) in 2019,with the highest incidence in 2019.Joinpoint regression trend analysis showed that the breaking point in the change in the annual number of influenza cases occurred in 2014,with an increase followed by a decrease and an overall upward trend,with an average annual increase of 53.2%(AAPC=53.2%,Z=6.12,P<0.05).Prevalence trends in different age groups were consistent with the overall prevalence trend,showing an increase followed by a decrease,with the number of cases 18 years of age increasing at the fastest annual rate(AAPC=63.4%,,Z=12.56,P<0.05).There were 2 transitions in incidence trends by gender,in 2013 and 2019.The trend showed a rapid increase from 2011 to 2013,flat increase from 2013 to 2019,and decrease from 2019 to 2021.Men had the fastest average annual prevalence rise(AAPC=54.9%,,Z=9.35,P<0.05).Conclusion The number of influenza cases in Bao'an district,Shenzhen city is generally on the rise from 2011 to 2021,and protective measures are focused on people in the age group of less than 18 years old as much as possible.The COVID-19 prevention and control measures are conducive to reducing the incidence of influenza.