国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展测度与评价研究

Study on the Measurement and Evaluation of High-Quality Development in National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases

采用访谈法、德尔菲法、AHP-TOPSISI模型等研究方法,系统探索国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展测度评价的理论性框架和实践性表现等问题。研究发现,2018—2020年国家体育产业示范基地理想解贴近度得分平均值为0.3858,高质量发展水平有待提升,41个示范基地高质量发展水平达到Ⅰ级的比例低于30%,呈现层级化特征。从三大业态类型看,综合类示范基地表现比较稳定,连续3年理想解贴近度值超过0.5,驱动支撑力相对多元,技术效率得到加持,创新能力占据优势,但持续发展能力不强,经济贡献潜力有待进一步激发;服务类示范基地呈现波动性变化,协调发展能力较好,但驱动支撑力相对较为单一,产业持续性相对较弱;用品类示范基地表现出一定的抗压韧力,持续驱动支撑点相对稳固,但受到生产效率不高、创新驱动不足、延展能力不强等路径依赖的制约。从三大集聚类型看,城区类示范基地理想解贴近度值呈现大幅下降趋势,效率提升能力和持续发展能力成为下降的主要拉力;县级和县域类示范基地理想解贴近度值均表现出一定的上升趋势,且在效率提升能力、持续发展能力等方面表现突出,成为驱动高质量发展的重要动力。从三大地带分布看,东部地区示范基地基础实力较为雄厚,3年理想解贴近度得分平均值均>0.5,创新驱动能力和持续发展能力成为重要支撑力;中西部地区理想解贴近度得分平均值均<0.5,西部地区下滑幅度较大,效率提升能力和创新驱动能力表现较弱。基于示范基地高质量发展态势和存在瓶颈,提出加强规划设计、逐步建立层级化发展路径,实施分类推进、加快构筑多元化发展路径,完善保障体系、逐步形成有序化发展路径,共同驱动国家体育产业示范基地持续高质量发展的建议。

We employed research methods such as interviews,the Delphi method,the AHP-TOPSIS model,etc.,to systematically explore the theoretical framework and practical aspects of measuring and evaluating high-quality development in national sports industry demonstration bases.The research findings indicate that the average score of similarity to ideal solution for national sports industry demonstration bases from 2018 to 2020 is 0.3858,suggest a that the level of high-quality development needs to be improved.Less than 30%of the demonstration bases achieved a level I high-quality development,revealing a hierarchical pattern.Examining the three major types of demonstration bases,general demonstration bases exhibit relatively stable performance,with similarity to ideal solution exceeding 0.5 for three consecutive years.They have relatively diverse driving support,enhanced technical efficiency,and a dominant position in innovation capability.However,their capacity for sustained development needs improvement,and their economic contribution potential requires further stimulation.Service-oriented demonstration bases show fluctuating performance,good coordination development capacity,but relatively single driving support,and relatively weak industrial sustainability.Product-oriented demonstration bases exhibit some resilience,with relatively stable continuous driving support,but they are constrained by factors like low production efficiency,insufficient innovation drive,and weak expansion capabilities.When examining the three major clustering types,urban demonstration bases show a significant decrease in similarity to ideal solution,with declining efficiency improvement and sustained development capacity being the main factors.County-level and county-region demonstration bases,on the other hand,display an upward trend in similarity to ideal solution and excel in efficiency improvement and sustained development capacity,becoming key drivers of high-quality development.In terms of regional distribution,demonstration bases in the eastern region have a strong foundation,with an average score of similarity to ideal solution exceeding 0.5 for three years.Innovation drive and sustained development capacity play crucial roles here.In contrast,demonstration bases in the central and western regions have an average score of similarity to ideal solution below 0.5,with the western region experiencing a significant decline and showing weaker efficiency improvement and innovation drive.Based on the trends and bottlenecks in the high-quality development of demonstration bases,suggestions are made to strengthen planning and design,gradually establish hierarchical development paths,implement classified advancement,accelerate the building of diversified development paths,improve the support system,and gradually form an orderly development path,collectively driving the sustained high-quality development of national sports industry demonstration bases.