乡村数字化可以促进农业碳减排吗?

Can Rural Digitization Promote Agricultural Carbon Reduction?

数字化是农业现代化的制高点,农业碳减排则是“三农”问题的难点,研究数字化与农业碳减排二者关系,有助于为农业生产领域“双碳”目标实现探寻新的路径。在构建乡村数字化水平和农业碳减排指标的基础上,对2003-2018年30个省(市、区)乡村数字化水平和农业碳减排二者的动态关系进行了分析,并进一步分析了不同区域乡村数字化水平对农业碳减排的影响差异。研究发现:(1)乡村数字化对农业碳减排的动态影响呈现出产业差异,面临乡村数字化的冲击,种植业净碳汇在整个考察期呈现出稳定的正面响应,畜牧业碳排放则总体呈现出负面响应,从后期趋势来看乡村数字化对种植业的冲击力度要大于畜牧业;(2)乡村数字化水平提升可以显著促进全国层面农业碳减排,但乡村数字化水平对畜牧业的影响则受到人力资本水平的制约,对种植业的影响则不会受到制约;(3)乡村数字化水平对农业碳减排的影响存在地区差异和产业差异,有利于显著增加东部地区种植业净碳汇,显著降低东部和中部畜牧业碳排放量,但对中西部种植业和西部畜牧业不显著;(4)财政支农力度的增加有助于农业碳减排,财政支农力度除对西部地区畜牧业碳减排不显著外,对其他地区农业碳减排都比较显著。

Digitization is the commanding height of agricultural modernization,and agricultural carbon reduction is the difficulty of the“three rural”issues.Studying the relationship between digitization and agricultural carbon reduction can help explore new paths for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the field of agricultural production.Taking 30 provinces(cities and districts)in China from 2003 to 2018 as the research object,this paper explores the dynamic relationship between between rural digitization level and agricultural carbon reduction based on the construction and measurement of indicators of both,and further analyzes the impact of rural digitization level on agricultural carbon reduction in different regions.The results show that the dynamic impact of rural digitization on agricultural carbon reduction varies across industries.Faced with the impact of rural digitization,the net carbon sink of planting industry shows a stable positive response throughout the entire investigation period,while the carbon emissions of animal husbandry generally shows an overall negative response.From a later trend perspective,the impact of rural digitization on planting industry is greater than that on animal husbandry.The improvement of rural digitization level can significantly promote the national agricultural carbon reduction,but the impact of rural digitization level on animal husbandry is constrained by the level of human capital,while its impact on planting industry is not constrained.There are regional and industrial differences in the impact of rural digitization on agricultural carbon reduction,which is beneficial for significantly increasing the net carbon sink of planting in the eastern region and significantly reducing the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in the eastern and central regions.However,it is not significant for the planting industry in the central and western regions,as well as the animal husbandry in the western region.4)Increasing fiscal support for agriculture contributes to agricultural carbon reduction.Except for the insignificant impact on carbon reduction in the animal husbandry in the western region,fiscal support for agriculture is significant in reducing carbon emissions in other regions.