不同投资者情绪下期权隐含信息的优化作用——基于上证50ETF期权的分析

Optimization of Implied Information of Option under Different Investor Sentiment:Research on 50ETF Option in Shanghai Stock Exchange

本文将期权隐含信息引入到投资组合构建中,分析了不同投资者情绪状态下期权隐含信息的优化作用。本文首先通过无模型方法提取上证50ETF期权的隐含信息,并且验证其在波动率预测中的作用。同时比较包含隐含信息与历史信息的投资组合表现,并检验不同市场环境下的投资效果。研究发现,无模型隐含波动率对于未来已实现波动率具有一定的预测能力,并且能为传统的波动率预测模型提供增量信息,隐含波动率优化投资组合的效果与投资者情绪和市场波动程度有关。研究结果丰富了我国期权研究的相关理论,为投资者利用期权隐含信息改善资产配置、优化投资组合提供一定的参考。

This paper extracts the implied information of the SSE 50ETF options by model⁃free method to verify its role in volatility pre⁃diction.By comparing the portfolio containing implied information and historical information,this paper evaluates the optimization effect of the implied information of options.In addition,this paper also analyzes the portfolio performance of investors in different emotional states.It is found that model⁃free implied volatility has a certain predictive ability for future realized volatility and can provide incremental information for traditional volatility prediction models.The effect of portfolio optimization with implied volatility is related to investor sen⁃timent and market volatility.This paper firstly introduces option implied information into portfolio construction,and analyzes the optimi⁃zation effect of option implied information under different investor sentiment.This study provides guidance for investors to use the implied information of options to improve asset allocation and optimize portfolio.