扎根城市,少生娃?——基于农业转移人口二孩生育行为的实证

Does County-to-City Migration Lead to Low Birth Rate?——Empirical Evidence Based on the Second-child Birth of Rural Migrants

新型城镇化背景下,认识进城对农业转移人口生育行为的影响,对我国优化生育政策、实现适度生育水平具有重要现实意义。利用2016年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,探究了扎根城市对农业转移人口二孩生育的影响效应及其机制。研究表明:(1)不论是长期居住,还是本地落户视角,扎根式进城对农业转移人口二孩生育均具有显著负向影响效应,且本地落户视角影响更为明显;(2)中断效应、选择效应和适应效应,在扎根式进城对农业转移人口二孩生育的影响机制中均有显著调节作用;(3)中断效应凸显为推迟初婚年龄、拖延初育年龄和延长生育间隔,进而强化了影响效应;(4)选择效应体现为强化工作稳定性、离开更高生育数量的原户籍地和改进了住房融资选择,从而扩散了作用效果;(5)适应效应表现为拉动家庭城镇就业、阻断祖辈照料支持和参与本地养老保险,继而放大了影响效果。为此,增加生育政策的包容性,构建城乡一体化的婚育市场、完善进城新市民生育保障体系,促进相关经济社会政策配套衔接,营造良好的生育环境,有助于实现人口均衡可持续发展。

In the context of new-type urbanization,a thorough understanding of what impact county-to-city migration has on the childbearing plan of rural migrants is important for the optimization of China's family planning policy and the realization of a moderate birth rate in China.This paper uses the data of national dynamic survey of Health and Family Planning of Migrant Population in 2016 to explore the effect that county-to-city migration has on the secomd-child birth of rural migrants and its underlying mechanism.The study shows that:(1)county-to-city migration has a significant negative effect on the second-child birth of rural migrants no matter whether they will live in city for a long time or permanently,and the effect on permanent settlers is more significant;(2)the interruption,selection and adaptation effects all significantly moderate the negative effect;(3)the interruption effect strengthens the negative effect by delaying migrants'first marriage/childbearing age and extending the birth interval;(4)the selection effect spreads the negative effect as rural migrants prefer stable jobs,leave their original birth place where birth rate remaims high,and improve housing finance options;and(5)the adaptation effect amplifies the negative effect as more urban jobs are taken by migrant family members,lef-behind elders are no longer able to take care of their grandchildren in city,and urban pension insurance is available to rural migrants.Therefore,in order to achieve a balanced and sustainable population development,efforts should be made to enhance the inclusiveness of childbearing policies,construct a marriage and childbirth market that combines city and county together,improve the marriage and childbearing support system for new migrants,promote the synergistic implementation of the relevant economic and social policies,and create a favorable childbearing environment.