房价与流动人口再生育意愿:一个社会融入的视角

Housing Price and the Willingness of Floating Populationsto Reproduce: a Perspective of Social Integration

人口增长是经济持续发展的动力,持续下降的生育率已成为中国经济面临的挑战之一。我国流动人口规模庞大,曾被称为“超生游击队”,但近年来流动人口的生育率下降明显,探寻他们的生育行为和生育意愿紧要而迫切。使用2014年中国流动人口动态调查数据,从社会融入的视角实证分析了房价、城市购房与流动人口二胎生育意愿之间的关系,研究表明房价上涨通过提升流动人口收入和降低失业风险渠道对流动人口生育第二胎的总体意愿产生了积极影响,呈现一种“财富效应”;城市购房对流动人口再生育意愿产生明显的抑制作用,且城市购房会削弱房价对再生育意愿的正向作用;进一步地,社会融入程度可以调节流动人口生育意愿对房价上涨的敏感性,这意味着高度城市融入的人口的生育意愿更容易受到房价的影响。从结论出发,提出实施“生育友好型”住房政策建议,保持房价和经济平稳的同时不断减轻城市新移民住房负担,从而提高流动人口乃至常住居民的生育意愿,这也是推动“新型城镇化”,实现“共享发展”的应有之义。

Population growth is one of the driving forces for sustained economic development,and the continuously declining fertility rate has become one of the challenges facing China’s economy.This study examined the impact of housing prices on the willingness of the Chinese floating population to have a second child.Rising housing prices are seen as a sign of prosperity,but they have also aroused concerns about housing burdens,especially for China’s floating population moving to the cities to work.We used national survey data from China to study the floating population’s intentions to have a second child.The results showed that housing prices have a positive impact on the overall willingness of the floating population to have a second child.For those who carry home loan mortgages,however,the effect is negative.Moreover,we explored the moderating effect of social integration and found that degrees of social integration can adjust the sensitivity of the floating population to housing prices.In conclusion,this paper proposes the implementation of“childbearing friendly”housing policy suggestions,to keep the housing price and economic stability while constantly reducing the housing burden of new urban immigrants,so as to promote the floating population and permanent residents of the desire to have more children,which is also to promote the“new urbanization”and achieve“shared development”.