中国居民消费潜力测度、区域差异分解及动态演进

Measurement,Regional Difference Decomposition and Dynamic Evolution of Chinese Residents’Consumption Potentiality

文章基于消费环境、消费能力、消费信心和消费结构四个子系统构建中国居民消费潜力评价指标体系,采用熵值法测算2008—2020年全国及31个省份居民消费潜力综合指数及子系统指数,并运用Dagum基尼系数和核密度估计方法揭示居民消费潜力及各子系统水平的区域差异及分布动态演进规律。研究发现:中国居民消费潜力水平偏低但呈上升趋势,“东部高、中西部增、东北降”的区域格局已经形成;四个子系统中消费环境和消费信心水平稳步增长,消费能力和消费结构水平亟须提升。居民消费潜力区域差异显著且逐步缩小,区域间差异是其主要来源。消费环境和消费能力水平的绝对差异是我国居民消费潜力差异的主要原因。优化收入分配格局、供需两侧同时发力、制定差异化的区域消费战略是全面激发居民消费潜力和缩小区域差异的有效途径。

This paper constructs an evaluation index system for Chinese residents’consumption potentiality based on four subsystems:consumption environment,consumption ability,consumption confidence,and consumption structure,and then uses the entropy method to calculate the comprehensive index and subsystem index of residents’consumption potentiality in China and 31 provinces from 2008 to 2020.Finally,the paper uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation methods to reveal the regional differences and distribution evolution patterns of residents’consumption potentiality and each subsystem level.The research findings go as below:The level of Chinese residents’consumption potentiality is low but showing an upward trend,and a regional pattern of“high in the eastern region,increasing in the central and western regions,and decreasing in the northeast region”has been formed.In the four subsystems,the level of consumption environment and consumption confidence are growing steadily,and the level of consumption capacity and consumption structure urgently need to be improved.The regional difference of residents’consumption potentiality is significant and gradually narrowing,with inter-regional differences being the main source.The absolute differences in the level of consumption environment and consumption ability are the main reasons for the difference in residents’consumption potentiality.Optimizing the income distribution pattern,promoting both supply and demand simultaneously,and formulating differentiated regional consumption strategies are effective ways to comprehensively stimulate residents’consumption potentiality and narrow regional differences.