中国农村经济基础设施资本存量及其资本回报率测算

The Estimation of Rural Economic Infrastructure Capital Stock and Its Capital Return Rate in China

文章基于非传统途径的永续盘存法,构建兼具财富和生产双重属性的核算框架,综合测算1981—2020年全国层面以及1996—2020年省级层面农村经济基础设施的财富性资本存量总额、财富性资本存量净额以及生产性资本存量,并利用空间杜宾模型估计其资本回报率。结果表明:农村经济基础设施的财富性资本存量总额、生产性资本存量和财富性资本存量净额依次递减,并且三者之间差距不断扩大;农村经济基础设施资本存量总体上不断攀升,区域上由东向西呈现阶梯式分布并存在明显的区域集聚现象,而资本增速表现为“倒U”型发展趋势;农村经济基础设施资本回报率整体呈下降趋势,东部地区的农村经济基础设施资本回报率明显低于中西部地区。

Based on non-traditional methods of perpetual inventory,this paper constructs an accounting framework with both wealth and production attributes,then estimates the total wealth capital stock,net wealth capital stock and productive capital stock of rural economic infrastructure in China at both national level from 1981 to 2020 and provincial level from 1996 to 2020,and finally adopts the spatial Durbin model to estimate its capital return rate.The results go as follows:The total wealth capital stock,productive capital stock and net wealth capital stock of rural economic infrastructure decrease successively,and the gap between the three continues to expand.On the whole,the capital stock of rural economic infrastructure continues to rise,showing a stepped distribution from the east to the west and an obvious regional agglomeration,while the capital growth rate shows an“inverted-U”shaped development trend.The overall rate of return on rural economic infrastructure capital shows a downward trend,and the rate of return on rural economic infrastructure capital in eastern region is significantly lower than that in central and western regions.