南通市冬小麦天气指数保险研究与设计

Research and design of the weather indices of winter wheat planting insurance in Nantong City

针对江苏南通地区冬小麦生长发育关键期的主要农业气象灾害,设计了倒春寒指数、涝渍指数、干旱指数、湿热指数、干热风指数、成熟期连阴雨指数。运用统计分析,筛选出倒春寒指数、涝渍指数、湿热指数等对小麦减产影响显著的天气指数,建立了南通市小麦种植灾损模型。南通市小麦单产的最优分布为Logistic分布,最优单产分步法厘定南通市小麦天气指数保险的纯费率为2.36%。当达到天气指数保险的赔付触发值时,即倒春寒指数≤-3.6、湿热指数≥32.6、涝渍指数≥1.1,按照小麦种植灾损模型及赔付标准启动保险赔付。

For the main agro-meteorological disasters for the regional winter wheat during the key growing season,late spring frost index,waterlogging index,drought index,damp heat index,dry hot wind index and continuous overcastrain index were designed.According to statistical analysis,late spring frost index,waterlogging index and damp heat index were selected as the remarkable indices to the reduction of wheat.The model for disaster loss of wheat planting in Nantong was established based on the chosen indexes.The optimal distribution of Nantong wheat yield was Logistic distribution.In addition,the optimum method determines the weather index insurance net premium rate of wheat planting in Nantong,which was 2.36%.When the weather index insurance triggere value is reached,that is,late spring frost index is less than or equal to-3.6,damp heat index is greater than or orequal to 32.6 and the waterlogging index is greater than or orequal to 1.1,insurance compensation can be initiated according to the estimation model for disaster loss for wheat planting and compensation standard.