农村劳动力转移促进了农业碳减排吗——基于30个省份的面板数据检验

Does Rural Labor Migration Promote Agricultural Carbon Reduction?——A Panel Data Test Based on 30 Provinces

厘清农村劳动力转移与农业碳排放之间的关系对于促进农业绿色低碳发展具有重要意义。为此,基于中国2005—2020年的省际面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型考察农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放的影响,而后构建中介效应模型、门槛效应模型并引入工具变量进一步明晰二者间的作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放具有显著的抑制作用但表现出一定的异质性,具体表现为,中、东部地区农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放具有抑制作用而西部地区不甚明显,粮食主产区中黄河流域省份相比长江、松花江流域省份其农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放具有显著的抑制作用;(2)农村劳动力转移会使得粮食作物种植比例下降,而这一种植结构的变化会促进农业碳减排,其中介作用份额占比为10%;(3)农业机械化水平对农业碳减排存在单一门槛,不同农业机械化水平下农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放的抑制作用存在差异。

The relationship between rural labor migration and agricultural carbon emissions is of great significance in green and low-carbon agricultural development.Based on the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2020,this paper investigates the impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural carbon emissions using a two-way fixed-effect model, and then constructs a mediating effect model, a threshold effect model and introduces instrumental variables to further clarify the mechanism of the interaction between the two.The results show that:(1) rural labor transfer has a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions, but there is some heterogeneity, specifically, rural labor transfer has an inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the central and eastern regions but not in the western regions, and rural labor transfer has a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin provinces compared with the Yangtze and Songhua River Basin provinces in the main grain producing regions.(2) The shift of rural labor will make the proportion of grain crops decrease, and this change in cropping structure will promote agricultural carbon emission reduction, and its mediating effect share is 10%.(3) There is a single threshold of agricultural mechanization level on agricultural carbon emission reduction, and the inhibitory effect of rural labor transfer on agricultural carbon emission differs under different levels of agricultural mechanization development.