京津冀水资源生态足迹动态变化与预测

Dynamic change and prediction of ecological footprint of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

采用水资源生态足迹模型、水资源生态承载力模型和水资源可持续利用评价指标对京津冀地区2010-2021年水资源生态足迹进行时空变化趋势分析,并利用长短期记忆时间序列神经网络模型对2022-2026年水资源生态足迹进行了预测。结果表明:2010-2021年京津冀地区水资源生态足迹呈先减后增趋势,其中北京生产用水生态足迹逐年下降并低于生活用水生态足迹,天津和河北生产用水生态足迹占比最大;京津冀地区生态环境用水生态足迹均呈波动上升趋势;2010年以来京津冀地区水资源生态足迹呈向中部核心城市转移趋势,各区市水资源生态承载力均远低于水资源生态足迹,呈生态赤字状态,其中,唐山市、辛集市、雄安新区、衡水市生态赤字较大,超过0.5 hm 2/人,水资源供需严重不平衡;京津冀地区万元GDP水资源生态足迹总体呈下降趋势,其中河北绝对值远高于北京和天津,节水潜力空间较大;京津冀地区2022-2026年水资源生态足迹呈缓慢上升态势,水资源供需矛盾将进一步加剧。

The water resources ecological footprint model,the water resources ecological carrying capacity model and the evaluation indicators for sustainable utilization of water resources were used to analyze the temporal and spatial trend of the water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2010 to 2021.And a long short-term memory time series neural network model was used to predict the trend of water resource ecological footprint from 2022 to 2026.The results show that from 2010 to 2021,the ecological footprint of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,with Beijing s production water ecological footprint decreasing year by year and lower than that of domestic water ecological footprint.Tianjin and Hebei have the largest proportion of production water ecological footprint.The ecological footprint of ecological environment water use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a fluctuating upward trend.Since 2010,the water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been shifting towards core cities in the central region.The water resources ecological carrying capacity in each district and city is far lower than the water resources ecological footprint,showing an ecological deficit state.Among them,Tangshan City,Xinji City,Xiong an New Area,and Hengshui City have significant ecological deficits,exceeding 0.5 hm 2 per person,and there is a serious imbalance between water supply and demand.The water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with a GDP of 10000 yuan shows an overall downward trend,with the absolute value of Hebei far higher than that of Beijing and Tianjin,indicating a significant potential for water conservation.The prediction results of the water resources ecological footprint show that the water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is showing a slow upward trend from 2022 to 2026,and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will further intensify.