基于云模型的输电线路运维检修风险评估

Risk assessment of transmission line operation and maintenance based on a cloud model

针对近年来输电线路运行维护检修中电网、设备、人员各类安全风险逐年攀升的问题,提出一种基于云模型的输电线路运维检修风险评估策略。首先梳理了超/特高压输电线路运维检修中16项关键风险因素,接着利用熵权法进行风险因素组合权重赋权,最后基于云模型实现了输电线路运维检修风险评估。利用该方法识别出11项重点风险因素,在采取风险管控措施后进行了风险再评估,结果显示中度风险发生概率由原先的26%降低至0.9%,证明了该方法在输电线路运维检修风险管理中的有效性,为输电线路运维检修风险管理提供了一种可行思路。

In response to the escalating safety risks associated with power grid,equipment,and personnel during transmission line operation and maintenance in recent years,a risk assessment strategy for transmission line opera⁃tion and maintenance based on cloud model is proposed.Firstly,a total of 16 key risk factors in ultra-high voltage transmission line operation and maintenance are identified.Subsequently,entropy weight method(EWM)is em⁃ployed to assign portfolio weights to risk factors.Lastly,the risk assessment for transmission line operation and main⁃tenance is realized through a cloud model.Via this approach,eleven critical risk factors are identified.After the implementation of risk control measures and a subsequent risk reassessment,the results indicate that the probability of moderate risk occurrence has decreased from 26%to 0.9%,validating the effectiveness of the proposed method in managing transmission line operation and maintenance risks and providing a viable idea for the management of such risks.