全球价值链贸易对“一带一路”人民币货币锚效应的影响研究

Research on the Influence of the Global Value Chain Trade on the Currency Anchor Effect of RMB in Countries Along“The Belt and Road”

贸易渠道是人民币发挥货币锚效应的关键因素。在增加值贸易框架下对双边贸易流进行分解,运用经典的货币锚分析模型实证研究全球价值链贸易这一占主导地位的贸易形式对人民币在“一带一路”沿线经济体中货币锚效应的影响。研究发现:第一,全球价值链贸易依存度有助于提升人民币在“一带一路”沿线经济体中的货币锚效应;第二,全球价值链贸易在双边贸易中所占的比重,即全球价值链参与度也具有显著的正向促进作用。进一步研究表明,与“一带一路”沿线经济体相比较,中国的相对全球价值链地位有助于提升人民币在“一带一路”经济体中的货币锚效应。因此,应当构建“一带一路”区域的产业链、供应链和价值链,提升中国的全球价值链地位,助力人民币货币锚地位的提升并进而推进人民币国际化。

Channel of trade is the key factor for RMB to show its currency anchor effect.This paper decomposes bilateral trade flows under the framework of value-added trade and uses the classic analysis model of monetary anchor to study the influence of the global value chain trade,as the dominant form of trade,on currency anchor effect of RMB in countries along“The Belt and Road”.The results show that the trade dependence of global value chain helps to enhance the currency anchor effect of RMB in economies along“The Belt and Road”.The proportion of global value chain trade in bilateral trade,that is,the participation of global value chain,also plays a significant positive role.Further research shows that compared with countries along“The Belt and Road”,China’s relative position in global value chain helps to enhance currency anchor effect of RMB in the countries.Therefore,industrial chain,supply chain and value chain in“The Belt and Road”area should be built and China’s position in global value chain should be improved to help improve the currency anchor effect of RMB,so as to promote RMB internationalization.