中国交通运输业碳排放区域关联分析

Analysis on region correlation of carbon emission of China s transportation industry

为助推我国交通运输业早日实现“双碳”目标,分析我国交通运输业碳排放的现状,建立交通运输业碳排放影响因素模型,并对该模型进行基础效应和空间效应分析。在此基础上,对交通运输业碳排放进行脱钩分析,对清洁能源的使用对交通运输业碳排放的门槛效应进行验证。研究发现,清洁能源、交通能源强度、货运周转量、客运周转量、城镇化水平、人均GDP等因素对交通运输业碳排放均存在显著影响,其中交通能源强度和城镇化水平的影响存在空间效应,清洁能源发电的影响存在积极的门槛效应。建议:大力发展清洁能源、降低交通能源强度等以彻底改变交通运输业的碳排放现状;尽早推出碳税以确保在实现“双碳”目标过程中的公平性。

In order to boost the realization of the“dual carbon”goal of China s transportation industry as soon as possible,the current situation of carbon emission of China s transportation industry is analyzed,the influencing factor model of carbon emission in the transportation industry is established,and the analysis on basic and spatial effects of the model is carried out.Based on this,the decoupling analysis of carbon emission in the transportation industry is carried out,and the threshold effect of using clean energy power on carbon emission in the transportation industry is verified.The study finds that,clean energy,transportation energy intensity,freight turnover,passenger transport turnover,urbanization level and per capita GDP have significant impact on the carbon emission in the transportation industry,where the impact of transportation energy intensity and urbanization level has a spatial effect,and the impact of clean energy power generation has a positive threshold effect.It is recommended to develop clean energy and reduce the transportation energy intensity to completely change the current situation of carbon emission in the transportation industry;it is recommended to introduce the carbon tax early to ensure the fairness in the process of achieving the“dual carbon”goal.