摘要
本研究旨在通过灰色关联分析及GM(1,1)模型,探索影响上海市碳排放权交易价格的因素,预测未来价格走势。灰色关联分析揭示了沪深300指数、石油价格、煤炭价格、汇率、空气质量指数与碳价格之间的关联程度。GM(1,1)模型预测了各因素及碳价格的未来趋势,结果表明沪深300指数、石油价格、煤炭价格对碳价格影响显著。而汇率作为新的重要因素逐渐崭露头角,成为未来影响的关键。综合考虑各因素,本研究认为未来上海市碳排放权交易价格将受多重因素影响,投资者需综合分析以应对市场变化。该研究填补了灰色关联分析在碳市场的应用空白,为相关决策提供了实质性参考。
The purpose of this study is to explore the factors affecting the price of carbon emissions trading in Shanghai and predict the future price trend through gray correlation analysis and GM(1,1)model.Gray correlation analysis reveals the degree of correlation between CSI 300 index,oil price,coal price,exchange rate,air quality index and carbon price.The GM(1,1)model was used to predict the future trend of each factor and carbon price,and the results show that CSI 300 index,oil price,and coal price have a significant influence on carbon price.And the exchange rate gradually emerges as a new important factor and becomes the key to influence in the future.Considering all the factors,this study concludes that the future price of Shanghai carbon emissions trading will be influenced by multiple factors,and investors need to analyze it comprehensively to cope with the market changes.This study fills the gap in the application of gray correlation analysis in the carbon market,and provides a substantial reference for relevant decision-making.
作者
邰智超
张铮
Zhichao Tai;Zheng Zhang(School of Management,Shanghai University of Technology,Shanghai,200093,China)
