基于DPSIR模型的新疆城市生态韧性评估及影响因素分析

Urban Ecological Resilience Assessment and Influencing Factors Analysis in Xinjiang Based on DPSIR Model

基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型,构建新疆城市生态韧性指标体系,探究2000-2020年新疆城市生态韧性的时空演变特征,采用地理探测器方法识别影响新疆城市生态韧性的关键影响因素,提出新疆城市生态韧性提升策略.结果表明:近年来,新疆发展迅速,2000-2020年新疆城市生态韧性水平持续增长;新疆城市生态韧性水平空间分布差异明显,呈现出北强南弱的特征;新疆城市生态韧性主要受城镇化率、林草覆盖率、人均消费水平等指标影响,其中,城镇化率和林草覆盖率的交互影响最高;新疆地广人稀,缺乏城市间的发展带动,在大力发展经济的同时,应以生态保护为前提,重点加强基础设施的建设,加强城市间的辐射带动作用,以提升城市生态韧性.

Based on the Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses(DPSIR)model,an indicator system for urban ecological resilience in Xinjiang is established to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urban ecological resilience in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020.The key influencing factors which can affect urban ecological resilience in Xinjiang are identified using geographic detector methods,and strategies for improving urban ecological resilience in Xinjiang are proposed.The results show that:Xinjiang has witnessed rapid development in recent years,and the level of urban ecological resilience continued to increase from 2000 to 2020.The horizontal spatial distribution of urban ecological resilience in Xinjiang is significantly different,showing the characteristics of strong in the north and weak in the south.Urban ecological resilience in Xinjiang is mainly affected by urbanization rate,forest and grass coverage rate,per capita consumption level and other indicators,among which,the interaction effect of urbanization rate and forest and grass coverage rate is the highest.Xinjiang has a vast territory and small population,and lacks the impetus of inter-city development.While vigorously developing the economy,ecological protection should be taken as the premise,and emphasis should be placed on strengthening the construction of infrastructure,and strengthen the radiation driving effect between cities to enhance urban ecological resilience.