数字经济赋能黄河流域现代化产业体系建设的机制与效果

The Mechanism and Effect of Digital Economy Empowering the Construction of Modern Industrial System in the Yellow River Basin

为了给数字经济赋能黄河流域现代化产业体系建设的政策设计提供依据,以黄河流域57个地级市为样本单元,基于2011—2019年面板数据,采用空间与时间双向固定效应模型,实证检验了数字经济对黄河流域现代化产业体系建设的影响机制与效果。结果显示:数字经济对黄河流域现代化产业体系建设具有显著的促进作用,科技创新和人力资本是重要的中介传导因素;数字经济发展能够有效推动黄河流域下游地区的现代化产业体系建设,但对上中游地区的影响并不显著;数字经济对黄河流域二线城市、三线城市、四线城市现代化产业体系建设具有显著的正向影响,但对一线城市和五线城市影响不显著;数字经济对黄河流域现代化产业体系建设的促进作用存在门槛效应,数字经济发展水平高于门槛值时其对黄河流域现代化产业体系建设的促进作用明显提升。

In order to provide a basis for the policy design of digital economy enabling the building of modern industrial system in the Yellow River Basin,this paper empirically tested the impact mechanism and effect of digital economy on the building of modern industrial system in the Yellow River Basin by taking 57 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin as sample units,using the panel data from 2011 to 2019 and adopting a two-way fixed effect model of space and time.The results show that the digital economy has a significant promoting effect on the building of modern industrial system in the Yellow River Basin,and technological innovation and human capital are important intermedi-ary transmission factors.The development of digital economy can effectively promote the building of modern industrial systems in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,but its impact on the upper and middle reaches is not significant.The digital economy has a significant positive impact on the building of modern industrial systems in second-tier cities,third-tier cities and fourth-tier cities in the Yellow River Basin,but its impact on first-tier cities and fifth-tier cities is not significant.The promotion effect of digital economy on the building of mod-ern industrial system in the Yellow River Basin has a threshold effect.When the development level of digital economy is higher than the threshold value,its promotion effect on the building of modern industrial system in the Yellow River Basin is significantly enhanced.