摘要
为了实现能源转型的目标,中国对太阳能的需求一直在极速增长.然而,太阳能发电潜力受到天气条件的影响并预期在气候变暖背景下发生改变.本文中,作者利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)24个气候模式的气象变量以及4个不同形式的光伏模型,预估了在2060年代低排放或高排放情况下中国的光伏发电潜力.多模式集合平均光伏功率在2004-2014年为277.2KWhm-2yr-1,并呈现出从西到东的下降趋势.到2054-2064年,在低排放情景下,全国平均光伏发电潜力将增加2.29%,而在高排放情景下则减少0.43%.低排放情景的排放控制大大增强了地表太阳辐射,促进了东部的光伏发电.相反,在高排放情景下,强烈的变暖对光伏发电产生了抑制作用.极端暖事件使光伏发电潜力在低排放情景下降低0.28%,而高排放情景下降低0.44%,分别相当于当代损失量的两倍和三倍.预估表明排放控制带来的清洁空气和适度变暖对中国未来的太阳能利用是有益的.
China's demand for solar energy has been growing rapidly to meet energy transformation targets.However,the potential of solar energy is affected by weather conditions and is expected to change under climate warming.Here,the authors project the photovoltaic(PV)power potential over China under low and high emission scenarios by the 2060s,taking advantage of meteorological variables from 24 CMIP6 models and 4 PV models with varied formats.The ensemble mean of these models yields an average PV power of 277.2 KWh m-2 yr-1 during 2004-2014,with a decreasing tendency from the west to east.By 2054-2064,the national average PV power potential is projected to increase by 2.29%under a low emission scenario but decrease by 0.43%under a high emission scenario.The emission control in the former scenario significantly enhances surface solar radiation and promotes PV power in the east.On the contrary,strong warming causes inhibitions to PV power generation under the high emission scenario.Extreme warming events on average decrease the PV power potential by 0.28%under the low emission scenario and 0.44%under the high emission scenario,doubling and tripling the presentday loss,respectively.The projections reveal large benefits of controlling emissions for the future solar energy in China due to both the clean atmosphere and the moderate warming.
基金
the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42275128]
the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province[grant number BK20220031].
