2010-2020年长三角常住人口空间格局演变及影响因素研究

Spatial pattern evolution and influencing factors of permanent population in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020

基于第6,7次区县尺度常住人口普查数据,分析了2010—2020年长三角地区人口空间格局的演变及其影响因素.研究发现:(1)长三角人口进一步向浙东北、苏南、浙西南集聚,上海、苏北和苏中地区常住人口比例有所下降;(2)长三角地级及以上城市划分为5个类型,其中杭州市、苏州市和宁波市为高增长型,上海市为中增长型,常州市、台州市和徐州市为低增长型,泰州市和淮安市为低减少型,盐城市为高减少型;(3)苏北、苏中地区人口向中心城区集聚,上海、南京、苏州等大城市的中心城区人口逐渐减少;(4)长三角常住人口规模空间演变影响因素复杂多变.基于研究结论,提出了相应政策建议.

Based on the data of the sixth and seventh district-county-scale permanent population censuses,we analyze the population pattern and the influencing factors of the evolution in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020.The results show that:(1)The population of the Yangtze River Delta has further concentrated in northeast Zhejiang,southern Jiangsu and southwest Zhejiang,and the proportion of permanent population in Shanghai,northern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu has decreased.(2)The prefecture-level and above cities in the Yangtze River Delta are divided into five types,of which Hangzhou,Suzhou and Ningbo belong to high-growth type.Shanghai belongs to medium-growth type.Changzhou,Taizhou and Xuzhou belong to low-growth type.Taizhou and Huai’an belong to low-reduction type.Yancheng belongs to high-reduction type.(3)The population of north and central Jiangsu are concentrated in the central urban area.The population of the central urban area has decreased in large cities such as Shanghai,Nanjing and Suzhou.(4)The factors influencing the spatial evolution of the permanent population in the Yangtze River Delta are complex and changeable.Based on the research conclusions,we put forward corresponding policy recommendations.