长江经济带城镇化与绿色化耦合协调的时空演化特征及驱动因素

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Coupling and Coordination of Urbanization and Greenization in Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于城镇化以及绿色化内涵,构建城镇化与绿色化评价指标体系,使用耦合协调模型、探索性空间数据分析法刻画了2005~2019年长江经济带108个城市城镇化与绿色化耦合协调度的时空演化特征,并运用空间杜宾模型探究其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)长江经济带城镇化与绿色化耦合协调水平逐年增强,但绿色化滞后于城镇化,两者的协调发展水平较低,空间上呈现“东高西低”的空间分布特征;(2)长江经济带城镇化与绿色化耦合协调度呈现空间集聚态势,长江下游城市为热点区域,具有空间锁定特征,而冷点区域则发生空间迁移,最终形成“热点大、冷点小”的空间格局;(3)长江经济带城镇化与绿色化耦合协调度的各影响因素按驱动力由大到小依次为经济发展水平、产业结构、教育投入、固定资产投资、政府管理、信息化程度,且各因素驱动性呈现空间异质特征。

Based on the connotation of urbanization and greenization,the evaluation index system of urbanization and greenization is constructed.The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and greenization in 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2019 are depicted using the coupling coordination model and the exploratory spatial data analysis method.The spatial dubin model is used to explore the driving factors.The results show that:(1)The coordination level of the coupling between urbanization and greenization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has increased year by year,but greenization lags behind urbanization.The coordinated development level is rather low,showing the spatial distribution characteristics of“high in the east and low in the west”.(2)The coupling and coordination of urbanization and greenization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a spatial agglomeration trend.The cities in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are hot spots and have the characteristics of spatial lock-in,while the cold point areas undergo spatial migration,and finally form a spatial pattern of“large hot spots and small cold spots”;(3)The driving factors of the coupling and coordination of urbanization and greenization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are,ranging from more to less significance,the level of economic development,industrial structure,education investment,fixed asset investment,government management,and the degree of informatization.The driving force of each factor presents the characteristics of a spatial heterogeneity.