长江经济带水-能源-粮食-生态脆弱性时空特征及影响机制

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Mechanism of Water-Energy-Food-Ecology Vulnerability:A Case Study of Yangtze River Economic Belt,China

水-能源-粮食-生态(WEFE)系统脆弱性研究对保障资源安全和生态安全具有重要意义。结合压力-状态-响应框架与随机森林模型,构建了WEFE脆弱性测度评价指标体系,采用考虑自评与他评效率结合的数据包络分析法对2005~2020年长江经济带WEFE系统脆弱性进行测算。利用核密度估计与克里金插值模型探讨其时空动态特征,Tobit回归分析WEFE脆弱性的影响因素。结果表明:长江经济带WEFE系统的脆弱性呈波动上升的态势;空间呈现“中间高-两边低”的格局特征,且脆弱性中部>东部>西部,脆弱性高值区伴随着向西北方向转移的趋势;经济发展水平、人均肉类产量、环境保护力度和人口密度与WEFE脆弱性呈正相关,产业结构、技术进步与WEFE脆弱性呈负相关。

The study on the vulnerability of water-energy-food-ecology(WEFE)system is of great significance to ensure resource security and ecological security.Based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)framework and the random forest(RF)model,the WEFE vulnerability evaluation index system was constructed.The cross-efficiency data envelopment analysis(CE-DEA)method which considers the combination efficiency of self-evaluation and other-evaluation was used to calculate the vulnerability of the WEFE system of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2020.The spatiotemporal dynamics were explored using the combined method of a kernel density function and a Kriging interpolation model.Finally,the Tobit model was used to analyze the influencing factors of WEFE vulnerability.The results show that the vulnerability of the WEFE system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt fluctuates.The spatial pattern features“high in the middle and low on both sides”,and the value of vulnerability features middle>East>West.The high-value region of vulnerability is accompanied by a shift towards the northwest.Economic development level,per capita meat production,environmental protection intensity and population density have positive effects on WEFE vulnerability,while industrial structure and technological progress have negative effects.